Can Sébastien Lecornu succeed where Michel Barnier and François Bayrou failed? In a France deeply marked by anger and a desire to shake up the system, and in a political landscape more fragmented than ever, the task now facing the new French prime minister – drafting a 2026 budget that can pass through Parliament without the government collapsing – seems out of reach.

Without a majority in the Assemblée Nationale and under the threat of an immediate vote of no confidence from the far-right Rassemblement National and hard-left La France Insoumise, Lecornu has to make concessions to the left without losing the right-wing Les Républicains. And time is running out: Constrained by the constitutional calendar, he must submit the draft budget bill to the Assemblée Nationale no later than October 13.

Since his appointment on September 9, the former minister of the armed forces, who rarely speaks publicly, has made several symbolic gestures. These included scrapping his predecessor's plan to eliminate two public holidays, ending lifetime perks for former prime ministers, axing the never fully implemented "universal national service" program – a civilian alternative to military service – and opening new community health centers. These announcements were all aimed at lowering tensions.

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