It's a message in the purest style of US President-elect Donald Trump, alternating lowercase letters and capital letters, all intimidation and bravado. "I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!!!!," he wrote on his Truth Social network on December 20, a month before he was sworn in. The billionaire says he wants to use this to tackle the trade deficit with the 27 member states (€151 billion in 2022 on trade in goods), a longtime obsession of his.

His request comes with a threat: If the Europeans don't comply, they'll face a sharp rise in tariffs on their exports. Of the order of 10%, if Trump sticks to his campaign promises.

European leaders, who believe it is still possible to avoid a trade war, have anticipated this request. In early November, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen raised the possibility of buying more American liquefied natural gas (LNG) to replace imports from Russia. Purchases of Russian gas have declined since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022 but have never ceased. Andreas Guth, secretary general of Eurogas, Europe's gas lobby, said that more American LNG is clearly needed to continue Europe's diversification away from Russia.

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