Sorcerer's apprentice? Poker player? Pyromaniac fireman? On Sunday evening, telvision commentators were debating what metaphor to use to describe Emmanuel Macron after his decision to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale, following the historic victory for the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) in the European elections. Before publicly announcing his decision, the president privately informed a handful of leaders from his political camp of the fait accompli shortly before 8 pm at the Elysée Palace. Very few of those around him took part in the discussion beforehand. However, several heavyweights in the majority advised him to go all-in and "confront the country with its responsibilities," including Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin and ally François Bayrou – who argued for a dissolution in September – as well as several advisers at the Elysée.

The small circle of insiders ("only eight people," according to a person close to the head of state), who saw Macron moving slowly toward this radical solution, were able to keep it secret. They were glad to have kept the element of surprise, whereas Jacques Chirac's failed dissolution in 1997, which had been leaked in 1997, is a perfect counter-example of how to do it. "For the president to regain his room for maneuver, there was no other choice but to go to the people," insisted one of his advisers.

One thing's for sure, Macron was looking for a way to save himself on a night of humiliating defeat. Even though he was fully committed to the campaign, using all the levers at his disposal (D-Day commemorations, war in Ukraine, dramatization of the election stakes, etc.), he was unable to halt the slide of his coalition's list led by Valérie Hayer. This election further weakened a government that was already struggling to navigate without an absolute majority. Furthermore, it has failed in the main objective it had set itself, to stop the RN. In fact, the supposed "bulwark" has collapsed. "Macronism is over," declared the opposition in unison before the surprise announcement.

By responding to one thunderclap with another, Macron, who refuses to let himself be erased and is not resigned to the disenchantment of the French, wanted to show that he remains the master of the game, full of bravado. The dissolution operation has several advantages in his eyes. In the immediate term, it masks his personal failure and acts as a distraction. Whereas this election night was supposed to be a celebration for others (the RN, which came first; the Socialists, who achieved a handsome score...), he was the main protagonist. It also exonerates him from any questioning in the face of the RN's success, which has never been so immense in the seven years since his arrival at the Elysée.

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