In an American presidential election that is shaping up to be both unpredictable and lackluster, the two front-runners continued their marches toward nomination at the end of the Michigan primary on Tuesday, February 27. But it is the respective impediments of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden that are attracting attention. While the former president once again crushed the Republican vote against Nikki Haley, around a third of party members are opposed to his expected coronation. Meanwhile, Biden passed a dreaded test of the electoral repercussions on the left of his unconditional support for Israel in the war in Gaza.

Biden's real opponent was not Dean Phillips, elected to the House of Representatives from Minnesota, but voter turnout and the "uncommitted" vote. More than 300,000 people in Michigan identify as being of Arab-Muslim origin. In recent weeks, the uncommitted vote has been promoted within this community as a means of protest against the American president, who refuses to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, demanding simply a "humanitarian pause." The Israeli offensive in the Palestinian enclave has already caused a large number of deaths, most of them civilians, in response to the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.

The American media had focused on this Arab-Muslim minority, at the risk of neglecting the weight of other voters. As the count continued slowly into the evening, the protest vote was below 15%. As expected, "uncommitted" performed best in Washtenaw County, home to a number of universities, and Wayne County, home to Dearborn, the heart of the Listen to Michigan movement. This is the name of the group drawn from the local Arab-Muslim community, which has been mobilizing for several weeks.

Its stated goal was modest enough to be easily achieved, 10,000 votes fewer for Biden. This was the margin by which Trump had won the state in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Biden had recorded a lead of over 150,000 votes. According to the New York Times, at midnight, when half the ballots had been counted, there were more than 64,000 blank votes.

In addition to the protest vote, Democratic experts were concerned to observe an emerging movement around the town of Dearborn, composed mainly of voters in their 20s. The risk of crystallization of opposition to Biden among a fringe of these young voters is a significant issue. From this point of view, Tuesday's result represented a warning, without leading to definitive conclusions. Despite the president's age and concerns about his ability to serve a second term, Democrats demonstrated discipline.

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