Donald Trump's diplomacy has disrupted certainty, even within the Russian opposition in exile. Two days after his telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin, the actions of the American president and the reactions from the Kremlin leader fueled discussions on Wednesday, May 21, in Brussels, where an anti-war conference gathered several dozen Russian opponents. The event was organized at the initiative of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former oligarch who has become one of the leading figures of Russian dissent abroad. "In fact, Trump has made a very good offer to Putin. It is wrong to say that Moscow is not tempted to use it to end the war," said the former head of the oil group Yukos, who, after being convicted in Russia in a politically charged trial, was released on December 20, 2013, after 10 years in prison.

Now a refugee in London, Khodorkovsky did not come to Brussels to talk about his past, but about Russia's future. He is convinced that Putin's regime will eventually fall. Since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the war has, in his view, only prolonged its survival. "I am optimistic. With Trump, there is hope for peace," he told Le Monde on the sidelines of the conference. "Putin has obtained from Washington a guarantee to keep almost everything he has conquered [Crimea and the four regions of the Donbas]. And some sanctions imposed on Russia would be lifted. So it is a good opportunity to seize. Either Putin accepts it, or he tries to push further into Ukraine toward the Dnipro with a new offensive this summer. But, in the long run, he risks encountering Ukrainian resistance strengthened by increased European military aid," Khodorkovsky warned. For him, Europe has made the right choice: "Answer tanks with tanks. But the logic of escalation will not go as far as total war because no one wants a nuclear conflict."

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