Even before Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration, trade tensions between the world's two largest economies are ratcheting up, with both sides announcing new restrictions almost weekly. The outgoing US administration, seeking to deflect the Republicans' accusation of being soft on trade, has stepped up enforcement actions. Meanwhile, China is sending a clear message of its own: To take tough reprisals if the future American head of state carries out his threat of punitive customs tariffs against Chinese imports.

Beijing is more exposed than four years ago, with its economy suffering from slowing growth. Domestic demand is sluggish, while exports continue to grow, a situation that is causing concern in the European Union and emerging countries such as Brazil and Indonesia.

But China also considers itself to be far more resilient, having reduced its external technological dependencies, as illustrated by its telecoms champion Huawei. Once severely weakened after being cut off from access to Google's Android smartphone operating system (2019), then to semiconductors produced in Taiwan (2020), the company has developed its operating system and is working hard to get its Chinese suppliers to catch up in chips. Xi Jinping's policy of technological self-sufficiency, which was not necessarily widely accepted because it can be seen as inward-looking in China, is now validated by the American threats.

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