How long can "bear hug diplomacy" last before it turns into a fistfight? Since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, President Joe Biden has been unfailingly supportive of his ally. But the carnage caused by the military operation in the Gaza Strip is turning this support into growing discomfort. The old and complex personal relationship between the American president and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is mainly preoccupied with his political survival, only adds to their strain.
On Tuesday, December 12, a pointed long-distance exchange between the two leaders illustrated Washington's growing impatience and irritation with Netanyahu's narrow-minded calculations, though the US's commitment to support Israel still holds. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was expected in Tel Aviv on Thursday to clarify its terms, ahead of a visit by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Q. Brown and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
"He's a good friend, but I think he has to change" and make a "tough decision," Biden said of Netanyahu, during a campaign reception on Tuesday. It was a reference to the prime minister clinging to his alliance with the far right like to a raft on stormy seas. Biden questioned the influence of religious nationalists in the Israeli government, citing the supremacist Itamar Ben-Gvir. As minister of national security, Ben-Gvir has been arming settler militias, prompting the US administration to freeze the delivery of 20,000 M16 assault rifles, according to Axios.
Washington is also concerned that the Israeli government is stifling the West Bank economy. This week, it refused to allow Palestinians to return to work in Israel, despite the recommendations of the Israeli security apparatus. But Washington's criticism goes further, touching on the post-war future for Gaza, which Netanyahu refuses to contemplate. "They don’t want a two-state solution," said Biden, adding "'Bibi understands that he's got to make some moves to strengthen [the Palestinian Authority, PA] – strengthen it, change it, move it." Several verbs, one big mystery: What are the US's plans? Officials in Washington stress that a post-war political solution will necessarily involve revitalizing the PA regime based in Ramallah. "The Palestinians have been not governed well at all," said Biden on Tuesday.
Is it a question of perimeter, of embodiment, of new elections? There has been no vote since 2006 and the victory of Hamas, but senior PA officials are now telling Western diplomats, behind closed doors, that they support elections. Would Hamas be excluded from the vote, even though it is more popular than ever in the West Bank? According to a new poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, 92% of Palestinians living there want PA President Mahmoud Abbas, 88, to resign.
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