During the August 9, 2020, vote that led to Alexander Lukashenko's re-election, Belarusians attempted to bring down Europe's last dictatorship. They were led by a trio of extremely courageous women: opponents Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Veronika Tsepkalo and Maria Kolesnikova. The awful government crackdown – aided and abetted by Moscow, which sent in its security forces – shattered this democratic momentum and drove thousands of citizens who had dreamed of being able to choose their country's future into exile.

Three years later, thousands of political prisoners are still languishing in the Belarusian regime's infamous jails, while the country is more dependent than ever on its Russian neighbor and "occupied" by its armed forces, according to Tikhanovskaya. Russian nuclear weapons are to be deployed on Belarusian soil, in total contradiction with the constitution. The Wagner Group, a criminal militia, is already rapidly deploying itself onto Belarusian territory.

The European economic sanctions imposed on the Lukashenko regime so far – after episodes of brutal repression, such as the hijacking of a Ryanair plane to arrest an opposition journalist and the immoral migrant trafficking that Minsk has organized to destabilize Poland, Lithuania and Latvia – cannot be our only response to these more recent attacks on our model and values.

For strategic reasons, Belarus has become an essential territory for Putin's war in Ukraine and a threat to Ukrainians in the event of a new Russian invasion from the north. Politically, the country is central to Putin's "Russian World" narrative.

Lukashenko, who for years seemed intent on resisting pressure from the Russian president, and even dreamed of becoming the tsar of Belarus and Russia, is now turning out to be a true servant to the Kremlin's ambitions. Politically and economically weakened for the past three years, the Belarusian government owes its survival to Moscow's goodwill.

What can be done about a regime that is so useful to Putin? First of all, rather than imposing new sanctions, it would be appropriate to ensure the sanctions already in place are correctly enforced. There are still too many ways of circumventing them. Second, support for the Belarusian opposition must be increased. Embodied by Tsikhanouskaya, the opposition is well-structured and has declared a government in exile. European and national institutions must have regular discussions with this government and its political leaders.

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