Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the number of soldiers killed or wounded has been one of the best-kept secrets. As in all conflicts, it is standard practice to overestimate enemy losses and underestimate one's own. This war is no exception, and handing over this sensitive information to the enemy, and demoralizing the population, is out of the question.
On the Ukrainian side, the Defense Ministry happily provides daily briefings on the number of Russians neutralized, but remains silent on its own losses. As of August 22, the number of Russian soldiers "liquidated" since the start of the invasion on February 24, 2022 – was 258,340, without specifying whether this included the wounded. On the Russian side, no official figures have been released for almost a year. The latest numbers, in September 2022, put the death toll at 5,937, which analysts believe to be greatly underestimated.
With no reliable tally available, international organizations, the media and allies have been making their own calculations for the past eighteen months, offering widely divergent estimates. The latest comes from US officials quoted on condition of anonymity by the New York Times on August 21. They put the number of soldiers killed and wounded on both sides since February 2022 at 500,000.
Breaking down those figures, Russia is said to have 120,000 dead (out of 300,000 total casualties) and Ukraine 70,000 dead (out of 200,000). The numbers have risen sharply since the battle of Bakhmut last winter, with hundreds of soldiers killed or wounded every day for several weeks, according to these US officials. While the Russians suffered many losses, the Ukrainians also paid a heavy price as they tried to hold on to every inch of territory before finally losing control of the town in May.
The previous public estimate by the Biden administration dated back to November 2022. US Chief of Staff Mark Milley had estimated that over 100,000 soldiers had been killed or wounded on each side since the start of the invasion. He also put the number of Ukrainian civilians killed at 40,000. In a report published in July, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights counted 26,015 civilian victims (9,369 dead and 16,646 wounded) since February 2022. It warned, however, that these were only verified cases, and that the real figures could be "much higher."
In Russia, reporting the number of dead is so sensitive that it has become an act of defiance. Information on military casualties is being suppressed, according to human rights activists and independent journalists. Those who insist on doing so expose themselves to harassment and potential criminal charges. In spite of this, two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, carried out an investigation in July with statistician Dmitry Kobak and the BBC to try and assess the "true number of Russians killed." By studying obituaries, excess mortality and records from the national probate registry, they estimate that 47,000 Russian men under the age of 50 died in the fifteen months of war in Ukraine (up to May).
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