In an economy that has remained resilient but is plagued with inflation, at risk of overheating and overshadowed by uncertainty, every step forward in the new Russian-American rapprochement has left Moscow's business community excited – literally and figuratively. After US President Donald Trump's return to the White House on January 20, after his one-and-a-half-hour phone conversation with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin on February 12, and after the four-and-a-half-hour meeting between their emissaries in Riyadh on February 18, the Russian markets reacted with the same enthusiasm: Rising stock markets and a reinvigorated ruble.

"The Russian economy doesn't ask itself questions of principle. It wants peace and gets excited as soon as it is given a glimmer of hope," said a Russian source close to the business scene, who preferred to remain anonymous. "For months now, business circles, and industry in particular, have been sending signals to the Kremlin: We're holding out, but it won't last. The war must end as soon as possible."

Three years after the start, in February 2022, of the Kremlin's "special military operation" in Ukraine, the Russian government anticipates limited growth this year, between 1% and 2%. This slowdown stands in contrast to strong growth in 2023 (3.6%) and 2024 (4.1%), after a small contraction in 2022. The deceleration became increasingly clear as 2024 progressed, with 5.4% in the first quarter, 4.1% in the second, 3.1% in the third.

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