On Monday, April 22, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev paid a courtesy visit to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow, against the backdrop of the withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping troops from Nagorno-Karabakh. The departure of the former tutelary power's soldiers has pleased many Azerbaijanis, but Aliyev wanted to be diplomatic, stating at the end of the meeting that "Russia is a fundamental country in terms of regional security in the Caucasus and in a wider geography."

The withdrawal of Russian forces, initially scheduled for November 2025, had been on the agenda ever since Azerbaijan took full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, following a lightning offensive, and expelled the 120,000 or so Armenians living there. The 2,000 or so Russian peacekeepers, sent as part of the November 2020 ceasefire that ended the war in the separatist enclave, no longer had any reason to stay. "The only question was when and how the Russians would leave," explained Shujaat Ahmadzada, an independent researcher in Baku.

The Azerbaijani authorities have provided no explanation for this early departure. "At this stage, the reason for this decision is unknown, but for Russia, it looks like a way of saving face," analyzed Ahmadzada, who works with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. In 30 years of conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, Baku had always opposed such a deployment. It only agreed to it after the 2020 war, when Moscow intervened to cool down the conflict.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 changed the situation and altered the regional balance. "Since then, Russia has reviewed its priorities," continued Ahmadzada. "The South Caucasus, which it considers its sphere of influence, has taken a back seat to Ukraine. Moscow is no longer in a position to mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan, nor to intervene as it once did in this region." Azerbaijan has taken over from Russia. The former guardian has been supplanted by the increasingly visible presence of Turkey, Baku's privileged ally.

On the strength of his military successes, largely supported by Ankara, Aliyev, who has been in power since 2003, now appears to be an increasingly important player in the region. The invasion of Ukraine has enabled him to gain greater influence both diplomatically and economically: Azerbaijan is now a more important partner, not only for Russia, but also for the West, to which it supplies more gas. To reduce its heavy dependence on Russian gas and diversify its supplies, the European Union signed a new gas agreement with Baku in July 2022. The aim is for Azerbaijan to double its gas exports to the EU by 2027.

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