Left-leaning Prime Minister Anthony Albanese triumphed Saturday in Australia's general election, according to media projections, prevailing in a vote shaped by inflation woes and Trump tariffs. National broadcaster ABC said Albanese's Labor party would "form government in the next parliament."
"It's a big swing that's on at the moment. I can't see how it turns around," said respected ABC election analyst Antony Green, with almost 40% of votes counted. "This could be a big win for Labor. But it's certainly a win."
Labor was leading in 70 seats with 40% of votes counted, according to official projections which put it within striking distance of the 76 needed for a parliamentary majority. The right-leaning Liberal-National Coalition was leading in a combined 32 seats, the Australian Electoral Commission said, with early data unavailable in 25 races.
Millions of Australians chose between Albanese, 62, and his conservative challenger Peter Dutton. US President Donald Trump has loomed over the vote since its earliest days, and there is keen global interest in whether his tariff-induced economic chaos will influence the result.
"The holy grail is back-to-back wins that we're aiming for today," Albanese told Channel Seven. "I'll leave nothing on the field over the next three years if I'm re-elected as Australia's prime minister."
Though trailing by a few percentage points in the polls, Dutton said "quiet Australians" could yet deliver a surprise. "I think they're going to go into the polling booth and say: 'You know what? I am not going to reward Anthony Albanese for the last three years,'" he told Channel Nine.
Before the first vote was even counted, speculation was already mounting over whether Dutton could survive an election loss. "I am 54. I am still very young, and I've just got a burning passion for this country," Dutton replied, when asked if he would stay on as opposition leader.
A total of 18.1 million voters were enrolled for the election. About half of them cast an early ballot, the election authority said. Voting is compulsory, enforced with fines of 20 Australian dollars, leading to turnouts that top 90%.
Albanese has promised to embrace renewable energy, tackle a worsening housing crisis, and pour money into a creaking healthcare system. Meanwhile, Liberal Party leader and former police officer Dutton wanted to slash immigration, crack down on crime and ditch a longstanding ban on nuclear power. Some polls showed Dutton leaking support because of Trump, who he praised this year as a "big thinker" with "gravitas" on the global stage.
As Australians soured on Trump, both Dutton and Albanese took on a more pugnacious tone. "If I needed to have a fight with Donald Trump or any other world leader, to advance our nation's interest, I'd do it in a heartbeat," Dutton said in April. Albanese condemned Trump's tariffs as an act of "economic self-harm" and "not the act of a friend."
Economic concerns have dominated the contest for the many Australian households struggling to pay inflated prices for milk, bread, power and petrol.
Coal-mining superpower Australia was also choosing between two leaders with sharply contrasting ideas on climate change and emissions reduction. Albanese's government has embraced the global push towards decarbonization, warning of a future in which iron ore and polluting coal exports no longer prop up the economy. Dutton's signature policy was a $200 billion scheme to construct seven industrial-scale nuclear reactors, doing away with the need to ramp up renewables.
The 36-day campaign was a largely staid affair but there were a few moments of unscripted levity. Albanese tumbled backwards off the stage at a heaving campaign rally, while Dutton drew blood when he hit an unsuspecting cameraman in the head with a stray football.