More shells and less social security? At a time when France's defense budget is set to increase, to face the "Russian threat," the idea of financing this effort by cutting back on solidarity expenditures has been emerging over several weeks. For the moment, no such plan is on the table, as Prime Minister François Bayrou has said that the country's rearmament would be carried out "without abandoning anything of the social model." However, some politicians, experts and observers believe that the extra resources dedicated to the military would make it necessary to review the rules of the welfare state, even if that meant – ultimately – making it less generous.

Julien Damon, an associate professor at Sciences Po university, has laid out the debate in very direct terms. In a text published on the Telos website, on February 25, he writes that the social protection system "could be forced to downsize so that [defense spending] can step up a gear." He wrote about this eventuality five days after Emmanuel Macron spoke with party leaders, in a meeting at the Elysée. At the meeting, the president mentioned the possibility of devoting 5% of France's gross domestic product (GDP) to military investment (compared with 2% today). He then clarified that he didn't know if this was the right figure, and later lowered the target: "Around 3% to 3.5%" of GDP, he said, speaking to Le Figaro newspaper, on March 2.

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