On Wednesday, November 15, American President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet in San Francisco, California, for the annual summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries. This is only the second meeting between the two men as presidents. The previous meeting took place exactly one year ago, on November 14, 2022, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali.

The keyword at the time was "stability." The aim for both sides was to put an end to the deterioration in relations and improve communication between Beijing and Washington. Since then, the United States has denounced the intrusion of a Chinese spy balloon over its territory, adopted an even more restrictive electronics export policy and reaffirmed its support for Taiwan. For its part, China has tightened controls on foreign investment in the name of "national security," limited exports of rare earths and stepped up military exercises around Taiwan, as well as intercepting American aircraft in the Taiwan Strait.

After Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, China cut off communications with the US military and has not restored them. It is also steadily strengthening its ties with Vladimir Putin's Russia – On November 8, China's top military officer, General Zhang Youxia, visited Moscow, affirming Beijing's "respect" for the Russian president during their meeting. As for the Middle East, China has never criticized Hamas and places all of the blame on Israel. More generally, China constantly presents itself as the leader of a "Global South" seeking to put an end to "American hegemony."

Contrary to the promises made in Bali, the situation between Beijing and Washington has continued to deteriorate, and no one really expects any improvement in 2024 – an election year in both Taiwan (in January) and the US (in November). Against this backdrop, expectations on both sides of the Pacific for the Biden-Xi meeting are limited. Once again, the key word is "stability." The US in particular wants to re-establish communication channels between the two countries' militaries. According to the Pentagon, the Chinese army has intercepted 300 American, Canadian and Australian aircraft off the coast of the People's Republic "in an unsafe and unprofessional manner" over the last two years (as many as in the previous decade).

China, which has denounced Washington's restrictions on technological exports, particularly in the field of microprocessors, would also like the US to recognize its "right to development" and define the terms of economic competition more clearly. As for the US, it talks of managing competition "responsibly." Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has just reiterated that the country wants a "healthy and stable economic relationship" with China and is not seeking to "decouple" the two economies.

You have 30% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.