Climate change is compromising the return of winter snow, threatening the future of ski resorts. At what pace? That question remains a source of controversy, particularly in the mountains. It's the subject of a scientific study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, on Monday, August 28, and co-authored by researchers mainly from the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the Environment (INRAE) and Météo-France. Their work does not set out a timeline, but models the consequences for Europe's mountains of increasing global warming, up to 4°C compared with the pre-industrial period.

"Our aim with this spatial and climatic modeling study – the first on this scale – is to take the heat out of the debate, moving beyond caricatured reactions in a transitional approach towards another economic model, but not with a disruptive perspective," said Hugues François (INRAE, Grenoble Alpes University), a specialist in regional planning. Whatever the scenario, it's the snowpack's "speed of retreat" that is of concern.

With a warming of 1.5°C, 32% of Europe's 2,234 ski resorts would face a "very high risk" of snow shortages. The researchers have based this idea on the 20% of the most unfavorable years for packed natural snow, over the 1961-1990 reference period. At 2°C, 53% of resorts would be in the same situation, with 91% at 3°C and 98% at 4°C. The use of artificial snow reduces difficulties, but this varies according to the coverage rate chosen. If the rate is 75%, the risk still amounts to 57% of resorts for 3°C or 74% for 4°C.

These global data, covering 28 countries, take into account the frequency of snow-poor winters, as well as the altitude and exposure of slopes. For France, for example, the models show a clear drop in snow cover at altitudes of around 1,400 meters, suggesting a very different future for mid-mountain destinations and major high-altitude resorts.

To take account of the considerable diversity, the researchers subdivided Europe's mountain ranges. For the Alps, their forecasts indicate that in the event of a 3°C rise in temperature, 87% of resorts in Switzerland would face a very high risk of brown earth rather than immaculate white-colored winters, compared with the 5% concerned if warming were contained at 1°C. Under the same conditions, this figure would be 93% in France (instead of 4% at 1°C), 94% in Austria (rather than 6%), 100% in both Germany (versus 20%) and Italy (instead of 69%). If 75% of slopes are equipped with artificial snow, these rates are reduced to 26% in Switzerland, 42% in France and 64% in Germany. "We expected a more pessimistic result for France," said François. "I hope that not every country is going to conclude: we're not the most vulnerable, nor do we emit the most greenhouse gases."

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