At the start of her daily press conference on Wednesday, November 6, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum offered reassurance: "I want to tell Mexicans that there's no reason to worry about the American elections. Mexico always comes through. We are a free, independent, sovereign country, and I am convinced that we will have good relations with the United States."

Sheinbaum defended the same position during the US election campaign, refusing to respond to the countless insults the Republican candidate hurled at Mexico and its migrants, portrayed as rapists and murderers. Faced with journalists' insistence, Sheinbaum merely recalled that "former president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador had a good relationship with Donald Trump and defused many of his threats." "The US is and will remain our privileged partner, as our economies have been interdependent for 30 years," she added.

During his first term in office (2017-2021), Trump threatened to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and tax migrant remittances to Mexico, known as remesas. Neither ever materialized: NAFTA gave way to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), signed in 2018 and ratified in 2020, which further deepens trade in North America. Remesas have never been taxed, and Trump's trade war with China has ultimately benefited Mexico: Many companies have left Beijing to set up in Mexico.

During the campaign, however, the Republican candidate's bravado intensified in comparison with 2016. For example, he promised mass deportations of undocumented migrants, the deployment of US troops to Mexico to combat drug cartels and the implementation of new customs taxes. "If just one of these threats is implemented, it will have consequences for the Mexican economy. Together, they could cause a recession or even an economic crisis," said Gabriela Siller Pagaza, chief economist at the Mexican bank Base.

Closing – even partially – the border to curb immigration would have an immediate effect on trade, slowing down the transport of goods and reducing exports. Mexico is now the US's leading partner, and 44% of foreign investment is American. The impact of deporting migrants would be even more severe for the country: Half of the ten million or so Mexicans living in the US are illegal. In 2023, they sent $53 billion (€49 billion) back to their families, representing Mexico's third-largest source of foreign currency after oil and foreign investment.

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