The crisis triggered by the fall of Prime Minister François Bayrou on Monday, September 8, is not the first the country has faced. Since the start of President Emmanuel Macron's first term, France has experienced a series of social and political shocks that have undermined the dominance of parliamentary majorities and rattled the workings of France's Fifth Republic – though without leading to a constitutional crisis. The Yellow Vests movement during the winter of 2018-2019 did not prevent the incumbent president's re-election three years later. However, it did contribute to eroding his legitimacy by highlighting the disconnect felt among segments of the working and middle classes faced with rising living costs and shrinking disposable income.
A spontaneous reaction to the rise in the carbon tax that would have driven up fuel prices, and escaping all political and union control, the Yellow Vests revolt also revealed the extent of the democratic divide. It gave rise to a strong demand for direct democracy, reflecting a growing sense that the representative system no longer spoke for many citizens.
Four years later, the powerful social movement of winter 2023, which this time was directed against the reform of the pension system and organized from start to finish by the labor unions, intensified the isolation of the president. Having presented his plan during his re-election campaign and considering it validated by his victory, Macron deemed it wise to press ahead with raising the retirement age to 64, despite no longer having an outright majority in the Assemblée Nationale.
Deep resentment
Politically and socially, the dispute had substantial effects. It played out at the ballot box in 2024, following the dissolution of the Assemblée Nationale, with disastrous consequences: Not only did no majority emerge, but deep resentment grew among many voters who felt their victory had been stolen. This was true for voters on the left as well as those supporting the far-right Rassemblement National (RN). Since then, France, unable to compromise, has drifted in a particularly turbulent and dangerous international environment, with no prospects for the future, marked by the fall of two governments – first Michel Barnier's and then Bayrou's – in less than a year.
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