France's snap parliamentary elections resulted in an unprecedented composition of the Assemblée Nationale, divided into three blocs of comparable size, each far from having achieved an absolute majority set at 289 seats: the Nouveau Front Populaire left-wing alliance (182 MPs), President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble coalition (168) and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies (143).
The new situation has raised many questions on parliamentary procedure. Le Monde explains some of the key terms.
The 17th legislature of the Fifth Republic will begin on Thursday, July 18. The first session at the Assemblée is traditionally chaired by the oldest member – in this case, José Gonzalez, 81, a re-elected Rassemblement National MP. He will organize a secret ballot from the rostrum to elect the president of the Assemblée. All MPs are eligible to stand for election.
To be elected, a candidate for president of the Assemblée must obtain more than half of the votes cast in the first or second round. If this is not the case – which is rare, but could happen this year – a third round is organized, and this time the candidate with the most votes is elected. In the event of a tie, the oldest candidate wins the presidency.
"Usually, the majority group wins, but here the votes are so close that alliances of circumstance may emerge," argued public law lecturer Thibaud Mulier. As things stand, said Didier Maus, an expert in public administration and constitutional law, it is "unlikely that [the president of the Assemblée Nationale] will be elected in the first two rounds." He added: "I don't see who could win unanimity, but everyone will have to try to find the most consensual candidate so that he or she can win votes outside his or her political family."
The president of the Assemblée plays a vital role in the institution – they chair the Conference of Presidents, the meeting of group presidents that sets the weekly agenda, as well as the Bureau, which regulates the organization and internal functioning of the Assemblée. The president also has a representative role, both in France and abroad.
On July 18, the opening day of the 17th legislature, MPs will formally register their parliamentary groups with the submission of a political declaration to the president. To form a group, at least 15 members are required.
"Most often, membership is based on the political affiliation of the elected representative, but some groups bring together MPs from different parties (for example, if the number of elected representatives is not sufficient for these parties to form an autonomous group)," explains the Assemblée Nationale's website. This was the case with the Gauche Démocratique et Républicaine group in the previous legislature, which brought together the Communists and members from overseas territories.
The larger a group is, the more influence it has in the Assemblée. For example, speaking time during the debates on a bill is allocated according to the size of each group. Places on committees (see below) are also allocated in proportion to the number of MPs in each group.
If an MP does not wish to or cannot join a group, he or she is non-registered and has fewer privileges.
There's another key stake in the new legislature: with no group having won an absolute majority, alliances between parliamentary groups are paramount to passing legislation. "There are bound to be negotiations to form new parliamentary group blocs," said Mulier. These would be coalitions.
Parliamentary groups must declare whether they are in the majority (for the group with the most MPs), opposition or minority. Minority groups are "the smallest groups in the majority or groups that are neither in opposition nor in the majority," explains the Assemblée website. Opposition and minority groups have specific rights. For example, they "benefit from one day per month reserved for an agenda set by them," details the Assemblée.
A parliamentary group (plus its allies, it has any) has an absolute majority when they have 289 MPs or more – half plus one of the total 577 seats. When a group outnumbers the others in the number of MPs without reaching 289, it has a relative majority.
This was the case in the previous legislature, as Macron's bloc (Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons) had far more MPs than the Nouveau Front Populaire coalition, which came out on top in this year's legislative elections: 250 MPs for the president's coalition in 2022, 182 for the NFP this year. As things stand, "the risk of deadlock is not insignificant," noted Mulier.
Once the president has been elected, MPs will appoint the members of the eight standing committees that make up the Assemblée: Cultural Affairs and Education, Economic Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Social Affairs, National Defense and Armed Forces, Sustainable Development and Regional Planning, Finance, and finally, Law. The parliamentary groups "are represented on the standing committees in proportion to the total number of seats they hold," explains the institution's website. Their composition must represent the Assemblée's.
Committee positions are "high-stakes," said Maus, as the committees are responsible for amending legislation, among other tasks.
President Emmanuel Macron accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and his government on Tuesday, July 16. However, the ministers will stay in office as part of a caretaker government which can only administer day-to-day affairs. This "reduces the scope of action to the strict minimum," said Julien Boudon, professor of public law and specialist in the Constitution, in an interview with Le Monde. "The government must then confine itself to a very modest role, managing the daily routine. But it cannot take any significant political measures, on pain of having them annulled by the Council of State."
On July 10, Emmanuel Macron asked "political forces" to "rally (...) around a few major principles for the country, clear and shared republican values," a prerequisite for him to appoint a prime minister. But what if the "structure" he is calling for fails to materialize, due to the fragmentation of the Assemblée? The president could opt for a technical government. This would involve appointing ministers with no political affiliation to ensure the continuity of public services.
Unlike a caretaker government, a technical government "has all the constitutional powers," said Mulier. It therefore has the "legal means" to implement consensus-based reforms, but at its own risk. Like any government, it can be held accountable by the Assemblée and can be toppled if it tries to push through a reform bill with too strong a political tilt.
France has never yet experimented with such an arrangement. However, Mulier noted that in Italy and Belgium, technical governments have shown that "the more time goes by, the more influence and ascendancy they have" over decision-making.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.