Inflation is no longer just an urgent concern for French people, it is now undermining their relationship with politics, aggravating an already deep-rooted problem in France: mistrust. Resurrected by the post-Covid period and the war in Ukraine, it is now showing the full extent of its effects on French society.

This is one of the findings of the political confidence barometer, a vast annual survey carried out by the OpinionWay institute for the Sciences Po Center for Political Research (Cevipof) between January 8 and 29 – after Gabriel Attal's appointment as prime minister – in four countries: France, Germany, Italy and Poland.

For the first time, mistrust has made its way into the private sphere. The French are the least satisfied of the four populations studied when it comes to their personal lives. "Until now, the data revealed a French paradox between the perception of a society that is doing badly and that of an individual who is doing well in his or her personal life," explained Gilles Ivaldi, researcher at Cevipof. These boundaries now seem blurred. According to the political scientist, this is a result of the crisis in purchasing power and inflation, which is lasting and "affecting individual well-being."

In fact, despite the policies implemented by the French government since 2021 to help offset soaring energy prices, wages have not risen as fast as prices in France, which have jumped by over 10% in two years. And, paradoxically, successive increases in the minimum wage, which is indexed to prices, have increased the number of people earning minimum wage in France, fuelling a feeling of decline and disengagement from the workplace.

This general feeling of vulnerability in private life is found in various forms throughout the study. Fear of being burgled, for example, is highest in France, while people in the other countries surveyed are more afraid of being attacked outside their homes. "This risk of home intrusion, synonymous with a more porous boundary between the public and private spheres, is a sign of greater economic insecurity and of the feeling that the state is less protective than it used to be," said Luc Rouban, a researcher at Cevipof. This feeling is "very corrosive" for confidence, and political parties are at a loss as how to address it.

The shock of the war in Ukraine and the risk of a nuclear accident, which were present in opinion polls at the start of the conflict, were very quickly supplanted in the reasons for concern of those surveyed. "In contrast, the real repercussion is purchasing power, which is hitting middle-class individuals in particular," continued Ivaldi. These are the very people who Attal has made his priority in his government policy statement.

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