In a country south of the United States’ border, a 79-year-old socialist is clinging to power as he presides over an economy in freefall. Surveys indicate voters are ready to hand him one of the worst electoral defeats in history when they head to the polls in 2026. In response, a rogue judiciary has decreed that his chief opponent may not run against him.
Sound familiar? It should, if you’re an American taxpayer, given recent revelations that your cash helped to pay for the left-wing side of this story. It’s the scene playing out in Brazil between socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and former President Jair Bolsonaro.
The country’s political situation has paralleled the U.S. over the last several years to an uncanny measure. Lula took office in January 2023 amid unrest in the nation’s capital of Brasilia. That unrest resulted in more than 1,500 people being charged on allegations of attempting a coup, while Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes prohibited Bolsonaro from running for office again before 2030. He has also been hit with a slew of criminal charges, which cumulatively carry a sentence of at least decades in prison.
Bolsonaro served as an ally to President Trump during their tenures in office, and Trump has lightly — but frequently — weighed in on Bolsonaro’s situation in recent days. The most notable example came as an invitation to attend Trump’s inauguration ceremony, an opportunity Bolsonaro was unable to capitalize on due to an order from Moraes confiscating his passport (Bolsonaro, for his part, told The New York Times he was “fired up” by Trump’s victory to such a degree that “I’m not even taking Viagra anymore.”)
Nonetheless, Trump should consider making a stronger statement. It would be a low-effort move with potentially high-impact results for U.S. interests.
One reason it matters for the U.S. is that Brazil’s democracy does not resemble a system many in the West would find familiar. Moraes wields an obscene amount of power, which he has used to aggressively undermine U.S. interests and target right-wing interests abroad.
One example includes his high-profile 2024 conflict with Elon Musk, which occurred after Moraes demanded information on a number of X users, including Brazilian lawmakers, for expressing political opinions that Moraes deemed inappropriate.
Rumble likewise, fell victim to Moraes in 2021, when he ordered that Brazilian internet providers block users from viewing the video-sharing website. Thanks to Rumble founder and CEO Chris Pavlovski fighting back with their own U.S.-based lawsuit, a new twist in that case came on Feb. 25, when Florida Judge Mary Scriven ruled they need not comply.
Brazil’s Supreme Court hasn’t issued a public response, nor has it said whether Moraes will appear in a U.S. court if commanded to do so.
Need more reasons to care? There are some compelling ones. Foremost among them is that Lula has suffered from a rising number of age-induced infirmities, which have undermined his ability to push his agenda. An October fall prompted him to cancel a trip to a BRICS summit in Russia, and led to a December surgery to stave off a brain bleed.
It’s fair to say Lula has been bad for his country and for civilized society more broadly (in addition to serving as one of Vladimir Putin’s handful of allies around the globe, he compared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Hitler this month, saying the situation in Gaza was like “when Hitler decided to kill the Jews.”).
Nonetheless, his ability to inflict damage on the world has been constrained by his physical limitations.
In the wake of Lula’s decline, Moraes has seen his status rise among the country’s left. He will soon be joined by whatever candidate he helps to anoint as Lula’s successor. If that happens to be a healthier, more energetic version of the current president, it will be bad for freedom around the globe, a drag on human progress, and a detriment to the Trump agenda.
Lula’s flaccid attempts to periodically insert himself in global affairs are usually inconsequential, but the desire by many in his party to strengthen the country’s alliance with China is one area where their bungling poses a greater threat of harming the Western world. Analysts have noted Brazilian exports will play a significant role in diminishing the impact of Trump’s tariffs on China, while members of Lula’s administration have been pushing Brazil to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative — which would seismically expand China’s foothold in the region.
Eduardo Bolsonaro — a son to the former president and a member of Brazil’s congress — noted in a speech at CPAC this month that his country’s overtures to China had implications for the U.S. He warned that if the elder Bolsonaro is prevented from running again, “Brazil will fall completely under China’s influence.”
But there is some good news. It’s that it shouldn’t cost much to contribute to a solution, partly because Lula has seen his approval rating plummet since taking office. A DataFolha poll released this month found his approval rating was at a record low, with 24% of voters saying they approved of his performance, compared to 32% who said it was “regular.” A 41% plurality called it “bad” or “deplorable.”
Better yet, from Trump’s perspective, might be that Moraes is even less appealing on a personal level than Lula. His public presentation — including his questionable sartorial choices — have justifiably led observers to compare him to a Harry Potter villain. While he holds sway with ideological zealots, he comports himself with a cartoonishly villainous aura that makes for the kind of foe Trump loves to antagonize.
Vice President J.D. Vance rocked Europe with his speech at the Munich Security Conference, where he scolded European leaders for betraying the "fundamental values" of democracy. He said the betrayal was evidenced by — among other things — Romania’s cancellation of its presidential election, and the move by some countries (primarily Germany and the United Kingdom) to prohibit conservatives from engaging in political speech.
Maybe it was the nudge Europe needed to begin journeying back toward freedom’s light. While we wait to find out, Vance should make the trek to Brazil to deliver a similar address (or Trump should do it from the Oval Office). He wouldn’t need to do much beyond swapping out country names in the original speech, and he would be providing a service Brazilian voters are unable to perform on their own — considering they’re largely prohibited from criticizing their own leaders.
The president should also consider acting on a recommendation originally made by Rep. Rich McCormick (R-GA) to impose visa bans and Magnitsky sanctions on Moraes and his allies, which would freeze their bank accounts in the U.S. and abroad.
Additionally, the Treasury Department should move to publicly disclose whether Moraes is indeed storing assets outside of Brazil — and their total value. Musk this month highlighted a report on X suggesting Moraes had transferred funds out of U.S. bank accounts. Brazil’s Supreme Court — as usual — hasn’t addressed it.
In a country where salaries can be as low as $1 per hour, it would be fair to let the people of Brazil know if Moraes accumulated a mysteriously outsized pile of riches from serving on the court — and to let the same people protect them on his behalf, using their own banks.
These are simple measures, but they could provide Brazilian voters with the inspiration they need to kick their undemocratic rulers to the curb. If that happens, it will have been well worth the effort.