Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are scheduled to debate on Sept. 10, but the 2024 presidential election is already in the bag — at least according to Allan Lichtman, the American University historian who’s been dubbed the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions for his near-perfect 40-year track record.

Mr. Lichtman was among the few to accurately predict Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 (earning him a Sharpie-scribbled note from the candidate lauding the “GOOD CALL!”). Immediately after the first 2024 presidential debate, between Mr. Trump and President Biden, Mr. Lichtman was also quick to warn that Mr. Biden dropping out of the race could be a “tragic mistake for Democrats,” leading him directly into an online battle with the forecaster Nate Silver. The confidence is rooted in Mr. Lichtman’s simple, history-driven model, which tunes out polls and pollsters and instead focuses on 13 true-or-false questions that he says hold the “keys” to the White House.

So can a model that looks all the way back to the horse and buggy days survive in an unprecedented election year marked by criminal proceedings, an assassination attempt and that Democratic switcheroo? Mr. Lichtman is confident that it can.

And what is his prediction in this unpredictable year? Well, for that, you’ll have to watch the video.

Nayeema Raza (@nayeemaraza) is a writer, filmmaker and podcaster. She co-hosts “Mixed Signals” from Semafor Media.

Adam Westbrook is a producer and editor for Opinion Video.

Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtmanYouTube) is a professor of history at American University.

Opinion Video combines original reporting with creative storytelling to produce visually transformative commentary. Pitch a video guest essay here.

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