Critics of transgenderism have often described the trend as a “social contagion.”
A blistering new report from the Centre for Heterodox Social Science just gave that label newfound heft.
In short, the report found that, after surging in the 2010s and 2020s, trans and “queer” identities are in sharp decline among young Americans.
Colleges — typically maligned as being the breeding ground for far-leftism in 2025 — saw the number of trans-identifying students cut nearly in half after its peak in 2023.
That year, nearly 7 percent of college students identified as trans. That number now sits at less than 4 percent.
The report also made a point to note that that percentage could drop even further soon: “Today’s freshmen are less BTQ+ than seniors, suggesting that decline will continue.”
Conservative pundit Eric Kaufmann took to X to summarize some more of the report’s findings, and it clearly resonated with audiences. His thread of posts has millions of views and tens of thousands of likes.
1/ NEW: trans identification is in free fall among the young
(h/t @FIRE data in particular) pic.twitter.com/i0Z1BNcWG8
— Eric Kaufmann (@epkaufm) October 14, 2025
One interesting finding that Kaufmann highlighted involved the relatively stable percentage of young Americans who identify as gay or lesbian. It’s the other “sexual identities” that seem to be plummeting.
2/ Non-conforming sexual identity (queer, questioning, etc) is also in sharp decline.
Gay and lesbian are stable while heterosexuality has rebounded by around 10 points since 2023. pic.twitter.com/fKD4G1rwi5
— Eric Kaufmann (@epkaufm) October 14, 2025
“Non-conforming sexual identity (queer, questioning, etc) is also in sharp decline,” Kaufmann posted. “Gay and lesbian are stable while heterosexuality has rebounded by around 10 points since 2023.”
Another interesting finding that Kaufmann highlighted was that this decline in transgenderism doesn’t appear to be linked with any sort of faith revival — implying that people are reaching this conclusion in a secular fashion:
4/ What explains the sudden reversal of trans and queer? It’s not because the kids became less woke, more religious or more conservative.
Those beliefs remained stable throughout the 2020s. pic.twitter.com/7GaSpfvATY
— Eric Kaufmann (@epkaufm) October 14, 2025
Kaufmann then proffered his own interpretation of the CHSS report.
“The fall of trans and queer seems most similar to the fading of a fashion or trend,” he posted. “It happened largely independently of shifts in political beliefs and social media use, though improved mental health played a role.”
In summary, the CHSS report said: “Trans, queer and bisexual identities are in rapid decline among young educated Americans. This does not appear to be the result of a shift to the right, the return of religion or a rejection of woke culture war attitudes.
“Despite high correlations between sexual/gender identity and political attitudes within individuals, the over-time trend in gender and sexuality seems relatively independent of political, cultural and religious beliefs.
“Improving mental health, however, appears to be part of the explanation for the decline of BTQ+ identification.”
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