A poll released last week shows Vice President J.D. Vance leading three different Democrats in hypothetical matchups for the 2028 presidential election.
The Emerson College poll sampled 1,400 people from July 21 to July 22, and had a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.
The matchups were tested in a national poll, based on top contenders from their the June 2025 primary poll, the Emerson website states.
When Vance was paired with former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, he beat him 44 percent to 43 percent, with 13 percent undecided.
Vance beat far-left Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York by three points, with 44 percent to 41 percent, and 15 percent undecided
Finally, when facing off against far-left Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, 45 percent supported Vance and 42 percent supported Newsom, while 13 percent remain undecided.
It’s still very early in the process, and we have a long way to go. Any number of Republicans could push for a primary against Vance if he ultimately chooses to run.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, or an outsider from the private sector are all viable options.
Still, it seems Vance is well positioned no matter what happens and remains the leading contender to inherit President Donald Trump’s mantle.
The poll also looked at Trump’s overall approval rating, which appears to have stabilized into the mid-40s, while highlighting how many undecided voters there still are on key issues.
Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball said, “A key takeaway from the ballot tests is that about 13 percent of the electorate remains persuadable, while the other 87 percent have already settled on a party preference.”
As for Trump’s handling of top issues, his approval was highest on immigration with the public divided at 45 percent approve, to 46 percent disapprove.
When it came to the 2026 midterms, a ballot test showed 44 percent support the Democratic candidate for Congress, while 42 percent support the Republican.
Fourteen percent are still undecided. This means Democrats have a lot of work to do if they hope to continue the historic trend of a minority party flipping at least one chamber of congress.
A majority of voters — 62 percent — said they are “extremely motivated” to vote in the midterms, with 16 percent being “very motivated,” 14 percent are “somewhat motivated,” while 5 percent said “not too motivated,” and 3 percent are “not at all motivated.”
It’s important to remember that when polls like this are released, or bandied about in the media, they’re only a snapshot. Political polls almost never add up to 100 percent due to the undecided factor, which can make them somewhat unreliable.
They gauge certain trends, but should be taken with a giant grain of salt. And just for the record, Emerson College polling predicted Hillary Clinton was going to win an electoral landslide of 323-215 back in 2016.
Many tight races but Emerson predicts a lopsided electoral map, 323-215, for @HillaryClinton vs @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/n8hiCVojtF pic.twitter.com/tgaaZRG2g0
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) November 7, 2016
We all know how that turned out. It just goes to show, polling is never gospel.
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