The U.S. economy rose 1.1% in the first quarter, falling short of estimates, in a sign that a slowdown is underway. 

It is also a big pullback from the fourth quarter's 2.6% rise and the third quarter's 3.2% increase, according to the final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  

The read may present a conundrum for the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell, who frequently touts being data dependent, heading into next week’s May meeting. 

Choppy Economic Data Points 

Economic activity has been choppy, at best, in recent weeks. 

Goods for March rose 3.2%, the first increase in three months, blowing past expectations of just 0.7% growth. However, March retail sales data released last week indicated the consumer has dialed back spending, falling 1%, excluding autos, sales slipped 0.8%. More current data, consumer confidence, as tracked by the Conference Board, slipped to a 9-month low in April. 

TickerSecurityLastChangeChange % UPSUNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC.172.57-3.71-2.11%

Additionally, this week UPS, a solid barometer of economic growth, gave a murky economic outlook. 

"I think there's been a shift from goods to services that's going on. And with those macro indicators and with the shift in the consumer confidence that we saw in the first quarter, you enter an environment where there's going to be softer volume and it was falling from January to February" UPS CFO Brian Newman told FOX Business, following the delivery giant’s earnings report. 

Plus, large corporations including Disney and Amazon, began cutting thousands of workers this week, with the two power players expected to cut a combined 34,000 jobs alone over the next few months with some already completed. 

TickerSecurityLastChangeChange % DISTHE WALT DISNEY CO.96.60-1.43-1.46%AMZNAMAZON.COM INC.104.98+2.41+2.35%

 

Policymakers will make their next interest rate decision on May 3 with the futures market currently predicting a 76% chance of a 25-basis point rate hike, lifting rates to between 5%-5.25%, as tracked by the CME’s Fed Watch Tool. 

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.