Gold’s grind upward is showing no signs of slowing, with some eyeing another record milestone for the precious metal.
"US $4,000/oz+ is likely a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’ in the current FOMO environment. We think there is a 75% probability that bullion markets breach US$4,000+ in 4Q or by early 2026," wrote Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy for State Street Investment Management, in a note to clients.
Gold wrapped its seventh week of gains, hitting an all-time high of $3,880.8 an ounce, bringing its yearly advance to over 47%. Uncertainty over the government shutdown, a weaker U.S. dollar and more interest rate cuts are seen as ongoing drivers. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in October and December, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.
Gold prices sit at fresh record highs in October 2025. (iStock / iStock)
"As the Fed resumes its rate cutting cycle, gold could be supported through two key channels: (1) Reduced opportunity cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset; and (2) Further potential bull steepening in the US Treasury curve, which should on balance be a US$ negative phenomenon," he added. The greenback is down against most of America's key trading partners and staring down the worst annual drop since the 1970s, he said.
Gold bars and coins are pictured as the precious metal hits fresh record highs in 2025. (iStock)
Gold exchange-traded funds inflows this year globally are the best since 2020, Doshi noted. He also points out total physical holdings remain below the pandemic peak, "suggesting scope for further buying. Bullion ETF inflows can materially tighten gold supply/demand balances and are a primary factor driving record prices this year," he said.
State Street’s SPDR Gold Trust is the largest ETF backed by physical gold and has seen weekly inflows from Sept. 15 through month-end, according to ETF.com.
Other top performers include ProShares Ultra Gold and DB Gold Double Long Exchange Traded Notes. Both have advanced more than 90% this year, while Sprott Physical Gold Trust and Franklin Responsibly Sourced Gold ETF are up 47%, as tracked by VettaFi.