Oil prices are tumbling this morning despite lower CPI (juicing rate cut hopes), weak retail sales (but strong gas station spending), and a big draw reported overnight by API. It seems the main downside driver was IEA lowering its 2024 demand forecast.

The question is - will the official data confirm API's big crude draw and re-energize prices.

API

DOE

The official data shows inventory draws across the board with crude stocks down 2.5mm barrels...

Source: Bloomberg

The Biden admin continued to add to the SPR, adding 593k barrels...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production remains flat near record highs at 131.mm b/d...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading just above $77 ahead of the official print and rallied further on the across-the-board draws...

Finally, we note that refinery utilization rates are back above 90%, the highest since January. Rates increased in all regions, with the Midwest rising for the second straight week to 90.8%, from 85.2% in the previous week, as refineries wake up from maintenance.