Overnight chatter from UBS' market desk centered on how the Swiss government was "caught completely off guard" by President Trump's 39% tariff rate. European and U.S. equities tumbled (read pre-market note) this morning, but our focus here won't be on comments from stunned Swiss officials or market gyrations on either side of the Atlantic; instead, it's the Swiss watch market and where prices could be headed next. 

Switzerland's watch exporters will face one of the steepest tariff rates globally. One sign of the trade fallout came earlier when shares of Rolex reseller Watches of Switzerland Group plunged 9.2% in London, with traders focused on how the tariffs could impact new watch sales.

The rude awakening of 39% tariffs on all goods imported from the Alpine nation got us thinking:

If the tariffs are passed on to U.S. consumers, it would mean higher prices for new Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin, Omega, and other Swiss watch brands.

In our view, higher prices for new luxury Swiss watches would drive retail substitution demand toward the used market, and may even help support the recovery of the secondary market, which has been in a downturn since the post-Covid mania peak.

Even before the tariff announcement, Bloomberg Sundial data showed that Rolex prices were showing signs of a potential bottom. 

UBS analysts led by Zuzanna Pusz told clients last month that a meaningful recovery in the global luxury market might not occur until 2027. Read the report here.

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