Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
The onus is now on Zelensky to reciprocate Putin’s widely perceived willingness to compromise for peace.
Putin and Trump publicly confirmed that they found a lot of common ground during their three-hour-long talks in Anchorage, but no grand compromise on Ukraine was reached due to “a couple of big [points]…One is probably the most significant” that remain unresolved according to Trump. Putin’s reaffirmation of the need to “eliminate the primary causes of the conflict” and Trump mentioning how Zelensky will “have to agree” with what the US achieved so far strongly hints at what these could be.
As a reminder, Russia’s official goals in the conflict are to:
demilitarize Ukraine; denazify it;
restore the country’s constitutional neutrality;
and obtain recognition of the on-the-ground reality.
Putin suggested that he’s become more flexible as of late, which was likely responsible at least in part for why he and Trump just met as well as for Trump’s positive assessment of their talks, so he could hypothetically compromise on one, some, or all of these goals.
This places the onus on Zelensky to reciprocate.
In the order that Putin’s goals were mentioned, Trump therefore likely expects Zelensky to either agree to:
Trump also said that he’ll “call up NATO”, likely referring to the leaders of key NATO countries, who he seemingly expects to facilitate a grand compromise by correspondingly:
They might not do so willing, however, so it’s possible that Trump could:
If Trump and his NATO subordinates convince Zelensky to agree to some of these compromises, then Putin might agree to:
This pathway towards a grand compromise could be derailed by: a Ukrainian false-flag provocation against civilians that turns Trump against Russia; a false-flag provocation elsewhere like in the Baltic Sea to the same end; and/or any serious expansion of Russia’s ground campaign beyond the disputed regions.
Trump might not be misled by any false flags while Putin might limit the scope of the special operation as a “goodwill gesture”, however, so peace is possible if Zelensky finally agrees to compromise.