Israel's ongoing military campaign, Operation Rising Lion, has conducted coordinated precision strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure, crude oil export terminals, and high-value IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) targets since late last week. The scope and sequencing of these strikes—outlined in a Wall Street Journal op-ed in October 2024—suggest objectives that go well beyond deterrence, aiming instead to pave the way for regime change in Tehran. 

Speaking Sunday, President Trump emphasized that the U.S. "is not involved" in Israel's strikes on Iran—adding, however, that "it's possible we could get involved."

"We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved," Trump told ABC News' Rachel Scott. 

The president also took to Truth Social, positioning himself as mediator and de-escalator-in-chief, stating: "Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal."

Even though President Trump is intent on avoiding a direct confrontation with Iran, any IRGC shift from striking Israel to targeting U.S. interests or personnel in the Middle East would likely escalate the conflict and sharply increase the odds of American intervention.

Overnight, several aviation tracking websites, including Flightradar24 and Air Live, reported that dozens of U.S. Air Force tankers took off from the U.S. and headed towards Europe.

Destinations are unknown for some, but the Boeing KC-46A and KC-135 aerial refueling tankers are critical aviation assets that extend the operational reach, endurance, and flexibility of fighter jets. 

However... 

The repositioning of USAF aerial refueling tankers strongly indicates that Western military planners are bracing for a sustained or broadening conflict—measured in weeks, not days. If that's the case, market overservers should take note: JPMorgan warns Brent crude futures could surge into triple-digit territory if the conflict deepens.