WATCH LIVE:
Big B-2 flyover with both leaders on the tarmac, just after the handshake...
Update(1430ET): President Trump said just before landing in Anchorage that "there's a good respect level on both sides" - but he has also threatened to "walk" if things don't go well.
Trump told Fox News' White House correspondent aboard Air Force One that if his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn't go well, "I would walk." According to the brief exchange:
"I mean, if it doesn't, you walk?" Baier asked.
"I would walk, yeah," Trump said.
But Trump also struck a tone of optimism: "I think we're going to do very well. Our country is doing very well. We're setting records economically like we never have before, including the stock markets are all at record high," he said.
Trump told Fox further, "We're taking in trillions and trillions of dollars with tariffs. We're going for a meeting with President Putin in Alaska, and I think it's going to work out very well. And if it doesn't, I'm gonna head back home real fast."
"Look, he's a smart guy. Been doing it for a long time, but so have I," Trump said of Putin. "We get along. There's a good respect level on both sides." Per ABC and others:
A White House official confirms President Donald Trump's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin will now be a three-on-three meeting. The president will be joined by White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
For the expanded working lunch, the president will be joined by Rubio, Witkoff, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, according to a White House official.
Air Force One lands...
Trump warns Putin: 'very economically severe' consequences if meeting doesn't go to his liking
President Trump has boarded Air Force One and is en route to Anchorage, Alaska - where what could be the most historic summit of his presidency is set to begin at 3pm Alaska time, which is 3pm eastern, and as the Russian delegation headed by Putin has already landed at Elmendorf-Richardson Air Force Base, which is venue for the talks.
Trump himself has been busy trying to temper expectations, calling it a "feel-out" meeting and the White House elsewhere referring to a "listening exercise" on the Ukraine war and bilateral Moscow-Washington relations.
While the consensus among Western officials and pundits is that deal to finally end the war is likely yet still far away, "we do expect some progress in today’s meeting and a path set for further discussions," according to Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International. "If we move toward a peace deal, it would be positive for the European markets."
Below is everything you need to know (via Newsquawk):
Trump-Putin Summit in Alaska on Friday 15th August 2025; Summit to begin at 15:00 EDT/20:00 BST; Trump assigned a 25% chance the meeting will not be successful.
MEETING FORMAT
PURPOSE:
EXPECTATIONS
Analysts at Rane suggest the Friday summit "risks side-lining Ukraine, fracturing Western unity and creating space for Russia to delay sanctions, consolidate battlefield gains and promote a US-Russia framework that advances Russian strategic interests." Markets will likely focus on several factors:
- the prospect of looser US sanctions on Russia.
- how far Russia is willing to go on concessions.
- any tangible progress towards a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
TRUMP'S CALL WITH EUROPEAN LEADERS ON WEDNESDAY
RUSSIA'S PRE-MEETING COMMENTS
UKRAINE INVOLVEMENT
RENEWED OFFENSIVE
RUSSIA'S POSITION
UKRAINE'S POSITION
Prior reports of softened Ukraine Stance
EU/NATO POSITION
No Deal [most likely]:
Limited Ceasefire [possible]
US-Russia Tensions Escalate [possible but not in bilateral interests]
Land-Swap Proposal [possible but unlikely to be accepted]:
Comprehensive Framework [near-zero]
Here is what the most likely outcomes are according to a Bloomberg Markets Live poll:
BLOOMBERG: Bloomberg's John Authers citing Christopher Smart of the Arbroath Group says "European defence stocks should fly on any lopsided deal that rewards Russia's aggression with oil prices likely to slump on even the whiff of looser sanctions on Russian oil... Beyond Europe, markets appear to have long since moved past the 2022 invasion, implying Friday s meeting has little potential to trigger a significant market shift. "
GOLDMAN SACHS: We don't expect the announced meeting between President Trump and President Putin, scheduled for Friday August 15 to cause a significant shift in Russian oil supply in key scenarios”.
ING: If we do see some level of de-escalation, it could remove sanction risk from the oil market. This would likely drive prices lower, given the Bearish fundamentals .