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Zero Hedge
ZeroHedge
13 Apr 2023


NextImg:Visualizing The World's Plummeting Fertility Rate

At the dawn of the 19th century, the world population hit a big milestone: 1 billion people.

Over the next 220 years, the number grew to eight times that, or the 8 billion people who live on the planet today, with half of the growth occurring since 1975.

As Visual Capitalist's Bhabna Banerjee and Pallavi Rao detail below, this continuous climb in global population has been possible thanks to advancements in healthcare and nutrition.

However, the UN forecasts that rapid growth will slow down - and may even stop entirely by 2100 - because of falling fertility rates.

What does that mean for modern nation states conditioned to expect a constant influx of new citizens and labor to power their economies? And how can those changing economies adapt to a shrinking population?

To understand that, we need to first untangle fertility rates, and why they’re falling.

The total fertility rate is the average number of births per woman over a lifetime. This measurement makes two key assumptions, however:

Both assumptions add some uncertainty to future fertility rate projections. However, decades of past data collected by the World Bank help show some overall trends around the world, and in many countries.

 The age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) “measures the annual number of births to women of a specified age or age group per 1,000 women in that age group,” according to the UN.

The world fertility rate (expressed as the number of children per woman) has been falling steadily since the 1970s.

In 2020, the world’s fertility rate stood at 2.3, slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, which allows for one generation to replace itself. This is down more than two times from 4.7 in 1960.

But the world’s average hides the vast disparities between the fertility rate of countries. We dive into the differences below.

According to the UN, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population lives in a region where the fertility rate is below the critical 2.1 threshold. In the table below, countries are ranked from the highest to lowest average births per woman in 2020.

RankCountry Name196019751990200520201Niger7.537.547.817.626.892Somalia7.257.037.447.486.423Chad6.256.887.227.136.354Dem. Rep. of Congo6.086.426.706.606.215Mali7.007.247.256.726.046Central African Republic5.815.896.055.855.997Angola6.717.497.276.465.378Nigeria6.366.776.466.075.319Burundi7.007.247.376.715.1810Benin6.286.856.735.685.0511Burkina Faso6.256.917.016.184.8712Tanzania6.737.006.205.614.8013Gambia6.256.416.225.724.7814Afghanistan7.287.547.576.914.7515Mozambique6.326.696.225.614.7116Uganda6.947.237.046.574.6917Cameroon5.656.396.395.414.5418South Sudan6.726.927.996.174.5419Sudan6.656.936.175.044.5420Guinea6.116.376.635.704.4921Cote d'Ivoire7.697.916.735.464.4722Mauritania6.356.686.065.194.4623Senegal7.007.256.405.194.4524Zambia7.127.396.535.714.3825Equatorial Guinea5.655.795.995.564.3526Togo6.727.156.135.074.3227Ethiopia6.887.147.245.974.2428Rep. of Congo6.096.365.214.664.2329Liberia6.396.746.375.524.1730Guinea-Bissau5.926.156.515.454.0931Sierra Leone6.186.556.575.814.0832Comoros6.797.126.505.034.0533Solomon Islands6.977.075.664.484.0434Samoa7.656.684.934.374.0035Malawi7.037.406.815.914.0036Eritrea6.486.596.344.933.9337Madagascar7.307.106.165.103.9238Sao Tome & Principe6.246.535.834.963.8939Yemen7.948.408.615.583.8940Rwanda8.198.226.875.443.8741Vanuatu6.866.095.034.163.7842Ghana6.856.775.714.543.6243West Bank & GazaNANA6.784.843.5744Pakistan6.806.816.364.643.5645Iraq5.306.885.884.483.5546Gabon4.425.395.464.213.5547Zimbabwe7.226.984.873.673.5548Kenya7.637.886.134.783.4049Namibia6.216.545.323.563.3550Kiribati6.555.034.643.803.3351Papua New Guinea6.026.075.184.223.2752Tonga6.895.434.644.183.2753Timor-Leste6.325.195.815.713.2554Tajikistan6.556.605.343.443.2455Tuvalu4.783.503.913.633.1956Kazakhstan4.533.392.722.223.1357Lesotho5.825.904.763.443.0558Kyrgyzstan5.384.663.632.503.0059Egypt6.795.804.483.152.9660Algeria7.507.374.562.562.9461Israel3.873.552.822.842.9062Mongolia6.837.134.232.032.9063Uzbekistan6.615.894.072.362.9064Eswatini6.756.755.253.682.8965Jordan7.677.895.483.782.8766Haiti6.215.695.483.832.8767Djibouti6.836.775.983.992.8568Botswana6.636.584.493.082.8469Syria7.497.475.383.812.8070Philippines7.155.604.353.492.7871Micronesia6.696.684.963.602.7572Turkmenistan6.595.904.242.662.7073Oman7.257.756.613.052.6974Bolivia6.365.794.893.562.6575Guam5.913.913.052.762.5976Lao6.296.296.083.672.5477Libya7.377.964.972.772.5178Paraguay6.505.214.553.042.5079Fiji6.464.103.412.892.5080Guatemala6.966.415.483.972.4881Saudi Arabia7.637.375.833.242.4782Guyana6.374.503.072.842.4283South Africa6.165.193.722.512.4084Honduras7.466.865.293.552.3985Cambodia6.254.105.643.242.3886Suriname6.614.733.272.752.3787Morocco7.046.274.022.572.3588Nicaragua7.166.504.602.772.3589Panama5.844.423.102.672.3490Dominican Republic7.565.243.412.612.3091Faroe IslandsNA2.902.802.602.3092World4.704.083.312.602.3093SeychellesNANANA2.202.2994Venezuela, RB6.364.693.452.632.2395Peru6.945.713.912.692.2296Indonesia5.555.043.102.432.1997Myanmar5.985.293.542.552.1798Kuwait7.166.093.322.662.1499Tunisia6.946.033.471.982.11100Lebanon5.824.563.302.202.10101Nepal6.035.755.213.142.06102Ecuador6.725.433.742.802.05103India5.925.204.052.962.05104New Caledonia6.283.703.182.202.04105Virgin Islands5.453.632.992.242.03106Grenada6.744.023.492.342.02107GreenlandNA2.352.442.382.02108Bangladesh6.786.744.482.812.00109Sri Lanka5.473.792.522.282.00110Belize6.506.284.703.132.00111Georgia2.942.532.311.611.97112Vietnam6.285.643.601.961.96113Turkiye6.385.073.132.221.92114Argentina3.083.303.032.431.91115Cabo Verde6.896.775.392.931.91116Mexico6.765.793.452.501.91117Gibraltar3.012.622.441.701.86118Bahrain7.155.623.762.621.83119France2.852.091.771.941.83120El Salvador6.635.683.952.461.82121Malaysia6.414.523.372.331.82122North Korea3.573.052.351.961.82123Qatar6.656.104.182.581.82124St. Vincent & the Grenadines7.294.982.832.071.81125Brunei Darussalam6.844.993.292.021.80126Moldova3.332.532.391.531.77127Montenegro3.502.401.941.691.75128Colombia6.744.403.082.261.74129Iceland4.292.652.302.051.72130Maldives6.807.196.092.241.71131Czechia2.092.431.901.291.71132Iran7.306.014.861.781.71133French Polynesia5.894.713.442.191.71134Azerbaijan5.884.182.742.001.70135Denmark2.571.921.671.801.67136Sweden2.171.772.131.771.66137Brazil6.064.422.911.971.65138U.S.3.651.772.082.061.64139Trinidad and Tobago5.353.242.381.681.63140Ireland3.783.372.111.861.63141Barbados4.332.391.741.791.63142New Zealand4.242.332.181.971.61143CuracaoNANANANA1.60144Romania2.342.591.831.401.60145Slovenia2.192.181.461.261.60146Australia3.452.151.901.811.58147Estonia1.982.042.051.521.58148Armenia4.792.962.711.541.58149Slovak Republic3.042.552.091.271.57150Antigua and Barbuda4.602.772.251.831.57151Isle of Man2.882.051.921.851.57152Bulgaria2.312.231.821.371.56153United Kingdom2.691.811.831.761.56154Hungary2.022.351.871.311.56155Costa Rica6.713.803.212.041.56156Belgium2.541.741.621.761.55157Latvia1.941.962.021.391.55158Netherlands3.121.661.621.711.55159Chile4.703.182.581.801.54160Germany2.371.451.451.341.53161Kosovo6.365.253.652.611.53162Russia2.521.981.891.291.51163Cuba4.132.851.801.471.50164Croatia2.231.961.631.501.48165Lithuania2.562.182.031.291.48166Norway2.851.981.931.841.48167SerbiaNANANA1.451.48168Uruguay2.833.022.432.101.48169U.A.E6.726.264.542.201.46170Switzerland2.441.611.581.421.46171Austria2.691.831.461.411.44172Mauritius6.173.202.321.881.44173Bhutan6.706.625.602.801.43174St. Lucia6.975.463.401.681.41175Albania6.464.522.901.801.40176Canada3.811.821.831.571.40177Portugal3.162.751.561.411.40178Bahamas4.823.262.532.051.39179Belarus2.672.171.911.251.38180Poland2.982.272.061.241.38181Finland2.721.681.781.801.37182Luxembourg2.291.551.601.631.37183Bosnia & Herzegovina3.912.361.791.201.36184Jamaica5.584.502.852.061.36185Thailand6.254.402.091.591.34186Greece2.232.331.391.341.34187Japan2.001.911.541.261.34188Cyprus3.512.112.411.481.33189Aruba4.822.512.301.781.33190BermudaNANANA1.761.30191North Macedonia3.972.592.191.501.30192China4.453.572.511.621.28193Italy2.402.171.331.341.24194Spain2.862.771.361.331.23195Ukraine2.242.021.851.211.22196Malta3.622.272.021.381.13197Singapore5.762.071.831.261.10198Macao SAR, China4.931.601.740.831.07199British Virgin Islands5.163.361.591.340.98200Puerto Rico4.802.772.381.770.90201Hong Kong5.072.671.270.960.87202South Korea5.953.431.571.090.84

The African country of Niger currently has the highest fertility rate, at 6.9, which means on average, a woman in Niger will have seven children in her lifetime.

With the exception of Afghanistan (14th), all of the top 30 countries are found on the African continent. In fact, it’s estimated that Africa will add 2.5 billion new people by 2100, while most continents will actually flatline in terms of population growth.

At the bottom of the rankings, the country with the lowest fertility rate is South Korea, at 0.84.

Interestingly, many of the current most populous countries of the world—including China, India, and the U.S.—are all below replacement levels of fertility, with parts of Europe and North America having had persistently low fertility levels since the 1970s.

However, even the countries that currently have high fertility rates have seen a steep decline over the last 60 years. Why?

Declining fertility rates are a consequence of a confluence of many related factors, including (but not limited to):

In the past, a larger number of children meant more chances of some making it to adulthood since infant mortality was so high. Women were also restricted to childbearing and rearing, and lacked access to contraception which led to increased—and sometimes unwanted—pregnancies.

Declining fertility rates are thus a triumph of improved socioeconomic development for many countries.

Although there are obvious issues with our large global population today, a different set of issues arise when fertility rates fall below replacement levels.

Dropping fertility rates can lead to shrinking populations and a higher ratio of the elderly to working adults—which will have unwanted economic consequences like increased healthcare costs and a reduced tax base.

Short-term solutions like immigration can help until populations are shrinking in every country. Longer-term solutions—reducing the cost of raising a child, and providing better support for families with children—are common strategies deployed to ward off demographic disaster.

The current crop of humanity has never had to contend with shrinking populations on a global scale. How will this reshape human livelihoods, priorities and expectations from life? We might soon find out.