The Deutsche Bank October 2023 global financial market survey, conducted between the 3rd and 6th of October, had 410 responses from around the world. Survey organizer Jim Reid took a look at expectations of central bank policy error, US recession risks, and financial market forecasts. The bank also looked at the topic of the day, AI, before moving to inflation expectations. Professional subs can read the full survey at their leisure at the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/t8ajeq003jp9fb6e5wws9/DB-Oct-2023-Global-Markets-Survey.pdf?rlkey=2e1bl67d6bpthqhrvogoqqxk5&amp;dl=0">following link</a>, for everyone else here are the highlights:

<em>More in the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/t8ajeq003jp9fb6e5wws9/DB-Oct-2023-Global-Markets-Survey.pdf?rlkey=2e1bl67d6bpthqhrvogoqqxk5&amp;dl=0">full survey available </a>to pro subs.</em>

75% think the next 100bps move in US 10yr yields is lower (average yield 4.75% during the survey). A big turnaround from June’s results where a small majority expected 4.5% before 2.5% when we were halfway between the two.
{ai:summary}<p>The Deutsche Bank October 2023 global financial market survey shows that 75% expect a decrease in US 10yr yields and 72% believe the next 10% move in the S&P 500 will be lower. The US recession call is now projected for 2024. The risks of a hawkish policy error are increasing for both the Fed and the ECB. The probability of Trump being President after the 2024 election has risen to 46%. The adoption of ChatGPT has slowed, but expectations for Gen AI's productivity remain high. Work-from-home days have stabilized for now. #economy #politics</p>

Vast Majority On Wall Street Think Next 100bps Move In 10Y Yields Is Lower

Loading...