Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Despite a slight 0.2 percent dip in national home sales in August, real estate professionals nationwide remain cautiously optimistic about the fall market, which officially began on Sept. 22.
In its September existing home sales report, published Sept. 25, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) described the August slip as a seasonally adjusted rate and noted that year over year, the U.S. housing market has experienced a 1.8 percent increase in sales.
The inventory remained basically unchanged from July, with a decline of just 1.3 percent. However, compared with August 2024, inventory rose by 11.7 percent.
Home prices continued to climb for the twenty-sixth consecutive month year over year, with the median reaching $422,600.
“Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in the report.
“However, mortgage rates are declining, and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months.”
As of Sept. 25, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.3 percent, according to Freddie Mac.
Jim Nabors, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB), told The Epoch Times that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious, even in light of its recent interest rate cut announcement.
“Chairman Powell has emphasized that decisions will continue to be made ‘meeting by meeting’ based on incoming data,” Nabors said.
However, he is hopeful about the fall market as well as the fourth quarter, as NAMB has witnessed an increase in mortgage applications, particularly for refinancing.
“Lower rates will drive the nation to a more balanced market position, and the industry is beginning to transition from a seller’s market,” he said.
Nabors believes inventory growth will also create more options for buyers.
“Those borrowers who previously may have felt priced out of the market may come back around,” he noted.
“The market is already showing signs of better balance, which can benefit both buyers and existing homeowners looking to refinance.”
NAR senior economist Nadia Evangelou said that the group predicts mortgage rates will continue to decrease slightly by the end of the year, which should trigger more households to buy homes.
“We definitely expect to see more activity in the coming months,” she told The Epoch Times.
Regionally, the NAR said the Midwest was the best-performing area in August, with a 2.1 percent hike in month-over month sales. Median home prices stood at $330,500—up by 4.5 percent from August 2024.
Erika Villegas, president of the Chicago Association of Realtors, forecasts a more robust fall and fourth quarter.
“If interest rates continue to stabilize, I think we’ll start to see more movement in the market,” she told The Epoch Times.
With an overall median sales prices of $360,000 for both single-family homes and condos in the city, condominium sales are up in September and are selling faster than single-family residences, noted Villegas.
“Condos are a very real possibility not only for younger first-time buyers but for those who are looking to downsize,” she said.
However, single-family home inventory in Chicago is still a big challenge.
“We just don’t have the inventory that we need to fill the needs of the market—especially for first-time homebuyers,” she said.
Villegas noted that bidding wars are still a reality both in the city and suburban areas.
“We recently had a deal with 11 offers on a property,” she said. “Depending on the house and the location, we’re still seeing over-asking offers of anywhere between $5,000 and $30,000.”
While there is some new construction, Chicago and its suburbs have limited land available.
“We desperately need new construction, and the City Council will be voting on laws about accessory dwelling units this month,” Villegas said.
According to the Chicago Association of Realtors, accessory dwelling units will help increase the housing supply for first-time buyers as well as the city’s workforce and senior citizens. The pilot program debuted in 2021, and new laws would extend the accessory dwelling units program to all 77 Chicago neighborhoods.
The West also experienced month-over-month growth in sales at 1.4 percent in August, with the median price reaching $624,300—an increase of 0.6 percent from August 2024.
Christy Walker, president of the Phoenix Association of Realtors, told The Epoch Times she’s also optimistic about the remainder of the year.
“Our pending sales are up, and our local lenders tell us that mortgage applications are also increasing,” she said.
As of September, Phoenix commanded a median price of $471,000, and in other suburban areas of Arizona, such as Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Chandler, the median price was at $510,000, according to Walker.
Local residents who are first-time buyers or even move-up buyers often find themselves competing with Californians and Midwesterners who are looking to move to a warmer climate. Canadians, as well, continue to purchase vacation properties in the area.
The biggest challenge facing Phoenix area real estate professionals is the continual construction of build-to-rent communities.
“Arizona is number one in the country for this type of model, and a lot of people may be getting stuck in these communities,” Walker said.
“Initially, they may choose to move in if they can’t afford to buy, but if they don’t start to save, they could end up as a perpetual renter.”
Walker believes seller concessions will continue throughout the fall and fourth quarter .
The NAR reported a 1.1 percent decrease in month-over-month sales for America’s southern region, where the median price in August was up by 0.4 percent from July, to $364,100.
Johnny Mowad, president of the MetroTex Association of Realtors in greater Dallas-Fort Worth, is convinced that the fall market and the fourth quarter will remain strong.
“Dallas is already booming, and this is the first time in decades that inventory has surged, especially in the suburbs,” he told The Epoch Times.
“The days of bidding wars on every home are fading and we’re seeing a market that looks more balanced.”
New construction in the region is also contributing to the inventory burst, Mowad noted, and buyers are beginning to have the upper hand. In Dallas County, inventory is up by 24 percent since last month, and in nearby Collin County, by 40 percent.
While Dallas sellers are now more willing to negotiate on prices, the market has not yet seen any significant price drops. As of September, the median price for a single-family home in Dallas County is $365,000—a 2 percent increase over August.
Mowad, a broker with Ebby Halliday Realtors in Dallas, expects the current momentum to continue into the fall and the fourth quarter.
“Even with negotiations, sellers are still getting great prices on their homes and they’re definitely going to see a positive return on their investments,” he said.
Jonathan Lickstein, president of the Broward, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Realtors, in Florida, told The Epoch Times that loan applications have risen about 18 percent, and with interest rates beginning to stabilize, he believes the area will continue to see in influx of local buyers and those from out of state in the coming months.
“Single-family homes in our region have experienced longer days on the market, but homes are continuing to maintain their value,” he said. “Sellers are negotiating, but most are still closing at 97 percent of the list price.”
Currently, Miami Dade County commands the highest median price at $660,000 for single-family homes, followed by Broward County at $625,000, Palm Beach County at $613,000, and St. Lucie County at $385,000, according to Lickstein.
The biggest challenge for the rest of the year, he noted, is the condo market, which continues to suffer from the fallout of the 2021 Champlain Tower condo collapse in Surfside. Billed as one of the worst disasters in the United States, the building collapse claimed the lives of almost 100 people.
As a result, explained Lickstein, condos built before 2005 are now subject to recurring inspections and repairs, which in many cases are forcing owners to incur huge payments for assessments.
“The newer buildings are not as impacted with this, but overall, the new regulations have seriously hurt the condo market,” he said.
Lickstein, chief operating officer of LoKation Real Estate in Pompano Beach, expects little change in the condo market through the end of the year. Condo prices are down all over, with Miami Dade’s median at $406,000, followed by Palm Beach at $300,000, St. Lucie at $282, and Broward at $265,000, he said.
Evangelou noted that both Texas and Florida lead the nation in single-family home inventory.
“Nationally, inventory is up, but we still need at least 300,000 more homes to balance out the market,” she said.
The Northeast experienced the biggest decline at 4 percent for month-over-month sales in August, but the median price grew 6.2 percent from August 2024, to $534,200.
Bianca D’Alessio, a broker with Nest Seekers International in Manhattan, told The Epoch Times that the New York City market remains very active.
“There’s been a huge uptick and increased buyer confidence,” she said. “There’s an anticipation about the interest rates coming down further and buyers who have been looking for a long time are feeling that now is the time to get in.”
A new residential building in midtown Manhattan that D’Alessio is representing has already brought in hundreds of showings. Considered “affordable” by Manhattan standards, studio apartments are listed at $400,000, and one-bedrooms at $650,000, according to D’Alessio.
“The first open house had 90 people lined up to see the units in this walk-up building with no amenities,” she said.
Bidding wars are still common depending on the building and location, noted D’Alessio. New York City’s boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens are equally as active.
“It’s reflective of what’s going on in the market, and I think we’ll be in for a successful remainder for 2025,” she said.
The NAR’s report indicates that first-time homebuyers comprised 28 percent of August sales—a jump from 26 percent in August 2024. Of all buyer transactions, 28 percent were in cash, and 21 percent were individual investors or second-home buyers. Only 2 percent were distressed sales from foreclosures or short sales.
While Evangelou believes that the next few months will be more prosperous for potential homebuyers, realtors, and mortgage professionals, she said affordability is still in issue that needs to be solved before creating a truly balanced market.
“Nationally, middle-income buyers with a household income of $75,000 can afford only 21 percent of existing homes,” she said.
“There have been some gains in affordable housing, but we need that number to be closer to 50 percent.”