After a surprising surge in May, US Housing Starts and Building Permits both decline in June (-8.0% MoM and -3.7% MoM respectively) and Starts saw sizable downward revisions from last mopnth (from +21.7% MoM to +15.7% MoM).

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, only single-family building permits increased in June (6th month in a row of increases). Multi-family permits and both single- and multi-family Starts dropped.

Source: Bloomberg

Multifamily construction dropped over 11%, but worse still, applications to build multifamily dwellings such as apartments fell 13.5% (the most since November) to 540k (lowest since Oct 2020)....

These MoM moves have dragged the Starts and Permits SAAR down notably (1.434mm and 1.440mm respectively)...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally we note that while Housing Starts and Completions remain well off their 2022 highs, Construction Jobs remain very close to those highs...

Source: Bloomberg

Is there a wake-up for residential construction employment coming?

Finally, we note that Mortgage Bankers Association data released earlier this morning showed applications for home purchases dropped last week as the contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage - while improved - remained close to 7%.