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Jul 31, 2025  |  
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NextImg:US GDP Jumps To 3.0% In Second Quarter, Trouncing Estimates And Reversing Q1 Contraction

So much for that imports-driven mini recession in Q1.

One quarter after liberal economists cried with delight when the US economy contracted as a result of a surge in imports (even as consumption remained solid), moments ago the Bureau of Econ Analysis reported that the first estimate of Q2 GDP came in at an unexpectedly brisk 3.0%, a complete reversal of the -0.5% decline in Q1...

... and well above the 2.6% estimate, if inside the 1-sigma upper distribution band.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP (and thus boosted bottom-line GDP), and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports. 

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