Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

We are only a few days into Trump 2.0, but so far, so good.

This administration is more fully staffed on day 1 than the last time and is filled with people who are committed to his causes. That is an important difference as the level of preparation out of the gates is materially different. Depending on which direction the administration goes, this might be good or bad, but make no mistake, Trump 2.0 is far more prepared and ready to act.

We’ve had the first (of what could be many) “personality clashes” in the administration with Ramaswamy stepping away from Musk and DOGE. With so many prolific, high energy individuals, we should expect to see clashes. The only one that could manifest itself and be tough for markets would be if the Trump and Musk relationship goes sideways. There is a comfort level associated with the richest man in the world helping form and guide policy – from a markets perspective. If that gets tested, it could be trouble, but so far, so good.

Trump seemed almost like two different people. One, very “presidential” at the official inauguration, the other, far less so, promoting an almost “campaign-like rally” atmosphere at later events on Inauguration Day.

Many of the topics we discuss are related to issues covered in more detail (along with our outlooks) in Geopolitical Risks and Opportunities in 2025. So far, from the policy side, we have seen:

So far, so good, but don’t forget the theme of 2025 – “messy” so as things look rosy, prepare for some negative headlines, and when things seem gloomy, expect the narrative to change more positive.

It should be an interesting year, but so far, so good for markets.