Following April's weak ADP print (lowest job additions since July 2024), analysts expected a rebound in May from the "unease" before Trump paused the Liberation Day tariffs. Jobless claims, among others, have all supported signals that the labor market refuses to fold to soft data's squeamishness over Trump's policies...

Source: Bloomberg

So, against expectations of a +114k print, ADP's Employment Report came in at just +37k for May - the lowest since March 2023's decline.

Source: Bloomberg

That was a 5 standard deviation miss from expectations...

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest miss since August 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Small Businesses dominated the weakness in the labor market...

Goods producing firms lost 2k jobs while Services added just 36k...

But the picture was weak across most sectors...

"After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum," says Nela Richardson Chief Economist.

"ADP Pay growth, however, was little changed in May, holding at robust levels for both job-stayers and job-changers."

Source: Bloomberg

President Trump is pissed...

But bond bulls are happy...

And 2025 rate cut expectations are (dovishly) rising...

So, what's your guess for Friday's print now?