The federal government officially shut down at 12:01 a.m. this morning, the first lapse in funding since 2019.
Roughly 750,000 federal workers are furloughed without pay, with "essential" employees forced to keep working - for now, without a paycheck. Active-duty military service members could soon see missed salaries if the impasse drags on, raising real-world stakes far beyond Capitol Hill.
How long will it last? According to Polymarket, most people think it will last two or more weeks.
History suggests shutdowns rarely succeed. Republicans’ 2013 gambit to undo Obamacare collapsed. Democrats’ 2018 standoff over DACA died out. Even the drawn-out 2018-2019 shutdown under President Trump produced little more than frustration and missed paychecks.
This time is no different. Lawmakers failed to agree on competing stopgap bills: Republicans pushed a “clean” continuing resolution into November, while Democrats tied funding to extending Obamacare subsidies and blocking cuts to Medicaid (illegals included). Both measures failed in the Senate Tuesday, leaving the government shuttered.
Senate Democrats rejected a Republican stopgap measure to fund the government at current levels through Nov. 21, insisting on an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies (illegals and all) - and limits on the administration’s practice of withholding federal funds.
"They’re in charge. They have to convene a negotiation. They haven’t done that," Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) said Tuesday. "The fact that they aren’t even here in the House of Representatives is proof that they’re not serious about it."
“Trump has to actually be willing to negotiate and make a deal,” echoed Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-VA). “He wrote a book about making deals. He played a character on a TV show who taught people how to make deals. And he hasn’t really done that as president, but this is his opportunity to do that.”
Republicans counter that Democrats are holding the government hostage. “We’re not going to discuss and negotiate it while they’re holding the hostage of the federal government,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said Tuesday morning on CNBC. “Release the hostage, and we will have that conversation about how we can keep these exchanges up and going.”
Meanwhile, President Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought are openly threatening to use the shutdown as a vehicle for sweeping government changes - from layoffs to budget cuts that would never pass Congress otherwise. “A lot of good can come from shutdowns,” Trump mused Tuesday.
Democrats call this intimidation. But if Trump follows through, the pressure on Senate moderates could mount quickly. Already, three Democrats - Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto, Angus King, and John Fetterman - have defected to back the GOP’s funding measure.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has so far held his caucus together, but defections hint at deeper vulnerabilities. Thune is betting that the longer the shutdown drags on, the more centrist Democrats will peel away. He needs at least eight crossovers to reach 60 votes.
At a press conference Tuesday night, Schumer avoided drawing a hard line, pledging only to “fight as hard as we can for [Americans’] health care” - a softer stance than promising to hold out indefinitely.
We go into greater detail on this here.
Beyond Washington, Americans are already feeling the sting: national parks shuttered, Social Security and Medicare services slowed, permits delayed, phones at federal agencies left unanswered. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it will withhold this week’s jobs report - data that could move markets.
Public anger has historically proven one of the most potent forces for ending shutdowns. A downturn in stocks or a wave of constituent backlash could tilt the balance faster than negotiations alone.
Federal paydays loom next week, with service members scheduled for Oct. 15. Pentagon officials suggest they could redirect funds from the $150 billion “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” pot to cover military salaries — a move that would enrage Democrats.
The most plausible way out would be Trump deciding to strike a deal — but at the moment, that outcome looks remote. Punchbowl News think that means Trump shifting course and endorsing a deal to restore funding. For now, Washington is locked in familiar gridlock - high stakes for families, a test of moderates’ resolve, and the looming risk that the shutdown lasts far longer than anyone expects.