By Goldman trader Paolo Schiavone

Key Events - Global Week Ahead:  Fed and ECB, Lunar New Year, 20% S&P Earnings

Trading markets

1. The plethora of events suggest x-asset vol is likely to be back next week. It’s Fed vs Mag7 earnings                          
2. Very opportunity-rich environment if you’re quick on the trigger. But also, plenty of bad volatility (in as, not fundamentally driven, hard to forecast).                                                                                                                           
3. So, you need to be nimble, size at half-75% of normal. Strong convictions weakly held. Weak convictions expressed in a risk efficient, premium down format.

Framework: Technical, Flows, Positioning. Valuation, Sentiment. 

Fed view: We are pricing, 7 for March ,14 for May 25 for June. We view “market pricing as a probabilistic statement about possible Fed paths in coming years is too hawkish”

Interesting Trades:

1. Fed- Dovish vs pricing- Rec SFRM5Z5
2. Rec BOC meeting on Wed- 25 or more than 0
3. Deepseek- low quality dip on Nasdaq. Buy dips in NQH5
4. Earnings: ASML short MSFT long/ Meta long
5. Earnings: Oracle/ Microsoft/ Amazon vs NVDA
6. Long Copper into Chinese seasonality and Lunar new year destocking.

Weekend News flow: 

1. Trump ridicules Denmark and insists US will take Greenland – FT
2. Meta's chief AI scientist says DeepSeek's success shows that "open source models better vs proprietary ones"
3. President Trump said he wants to "clean out" the Gaza Strip and urged Jordan and Egypt
4. German Election Taboos Broken as Merz and Musk Flirt With AfD
5. Baltic Sea data cable damaged in latest case of potential sabotage
6. Reeves seeks to unlock billions from UK pension schemes for investment- FT

Charts: 

Chart 1 GS Flow of funds last week:

Chart 2: Mag Seven: EPS expectations slowing- buying opportunity on a lower bar ( BBG)

Chart 3: SPX short and USD shorts capitulation was at full speed.

Chart 4: Corporate Insiders are dumping shares at the fastest pace in history (data going back to 1988) 

Chart 5: Gold continues to be one of the highest conviction/ trend trades out of the gates in 2025. (Goldman)

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.