Take-Two Interactive Software fell in premarket trading in New York after lowering its fiscal 2025 bookings forecast on Thursday evening and announcing a release date for Grand Theft Auto VI in the autumn of 2025. Some Wall Street desks viewed the release date as a "delay."
Take-Two now expects fiscal 2025 bookings between $5.55 billion and $5.65 billion, down from the Bloomberg estimate of $6.92 billion.
Here's a snapshot of the 2025 outlook:
Besides the outlook, Wall Street analysts focused on Take-Two's Rockstar Games release of GTA6. Some desks say this date is considered a "delay."
Morgan Stanley, Matthew Cost (overweight)
- The delay to Grand Theft Auto VI removes a "major overhang" from the shares, which Cost says had weighed on the stock since 3Q results in February
- Not surprised by limited EPS growth in the guidance, though notes management had "pointed to a significant planned increase in marketing around Zynga titles, which we would hope to see generate meaningful incremental profitability in FY26"
Raymond James, Andrew Marok (outperform)
- Results came slightly ahead of expectations, though Take-Two put the "final nail in the coffin" for expectations of Grand Theft Auto VI releasing in FY25
- "The new FY25 guide suggests seven immersive core titles: the already-released TopSpin 2K25, the dependable iterations of NBA 2K and WWE 2K, a new iteration of a sizable 2K franchises (we estimate Civilization VII), and three others (one of which we expect is PGA Tour 2K25)"
Citi, Jason Bazinet (buy)
- The Grand Theft Auto date "will place the release in FY 2026 and likely be the main driver behind today's lower FY 2025 outlook"
- "Some investors might view this latest GTA VI delay as a clearing event for the stock, limiting potential downside"
Deutsche Bank, Benjamin Soff (buy)
- While Grand Theft Auto VI has been delayed, the long-term opportunity in the stock remains intact
- Bookings outperformance during 4Q was driven by strength from NBA 2K24, Take-Two's mobile business and GTA
Bloomberg Intelligence, Nathan Naidu and Kevin Tsao
- "Take-Two's updated launch timing for Grand Theft Auto VI means its release will take place after end-fiscal 2025, overshadowing its fiscal 4Q consensus earnings beat"
- "Net bookings in fiscal 1Q ending June is expected to grow by a low-single digit, as a full quarter from new games offsets softness in the GTA franchise's multiplayer game, with likely upside from the completion of Gearbox acquisition"
Vital Knowledge
- The outlook is "downbeat" but the company is "still upbeat on sales growth over the coming years, and "this optimism should help mitigate the knee-jerk slump that will accompany the F25 guide"
This is not the first time analysts have feared delays.
Some gamers have been waiting a decade for GTA 6.
Take-Two shares have surged in recent quarters on the anticipation of the GTA 6 release. Shares have hit resistance between the $160-$170 levels. In premarket trading, shares are down 2%.
"We do feel highly confident that we'll deliver [Grand Theft Auto VI] in fall of 2025," Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick told video game website IGN when asked about rumors GTA 6 could be delayed into 2026.