By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Rarely does a T-Report write itself, but this is one of those occasions! A paramilitary (or simply military) group named Wagner. A ride to Moscow. Almost impossible not to conjure up the iconic helicopter scene from Apocalypse Now.

Academy has published two brief SITREPS on the events of the past 48 hours in Russia. We are having multiple discussions on the subject attempting to sort through the possibilities and you should expect another SITREP on this “incredible” development. “Incredible” from the standpoint that virtually no one saw it coming, that it is the first real “challenge” to Putin and that somehow, Belarus apparently played the role of mediator.

For now, some key takeaways are:

At this stage, there is so much uncertainty around what happened, how it happened and what will happen next that it is difficult to predict anything for markets. But, I think we are in position to lay out several plausible scenarios and what it would likely mean.

Ukraine makes advances, the Wagner group removes itself from this conflict to focus on their other “business” initiatives and Putin is forced to the table (potentially literally forced by Xi).

Some sort of “regime” change in Russia.

Retribution and renewed focus from Putin.

Status quo.

We are probably the closest we’ve been to seeing a defined path to peace since the invasion occurred, but its impact on markets will be muted as the world has changed a lot in the past 18 months.

There is some small risk that this all gets worse before it gets better.

I will leave you with this quote “Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks” since it seems appropriate for the current fluid situation.