We’ve been bullish on rare earth miners for over three months— long before the mainstream press caught on. While the media is just catching up, Zerohedge have hopefully been enjoying locking in multiples of gains in popular rare earth stocks like USA Rare Earths (USAR) and MP Materials (MP) as the Pentagon is quietly ramping up its billion-dollar mineral stockpiling spree, now being highlighted by the Financial Times over the weekend.
Recall, all the way back on July 11th we wrote "The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How To Profit" for our premium subscribers.USAR was trading at about $11 at the time is is bid at $38 this morning. MP Materials was trading at about $45 at the time and this morning is bid at about $86.
According to filings from the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), the U.S. Department of Defense has moved to secure up to $1 billion in critical minerals — from cobalt and antimony to scandium and tantalum — as part of a global race to reduce dependence on China, according to Financial Times.
One former defense official summed it up: “They’re definitely looking for more, and they’re doing it in a deliberate and expansive way.”
The acceleration follows China’s sweeping new export controls on rare earths, which prompted Donald Trump to cancel a planned meeting with Xi Jinping, warning: “There is no way that China should be allowed to hold the world ‘captive’ but that seems to have been their plan.”
The Pentagon’s urgency is clear. “China’s ability to turn off the supply of these critical minerals would have a direct, palpable and adverse effect on US ability to field the kind of high-tech capabilities that we’re going to need for any kind of strategic competition or conflict,” said Stephanie Barna of Covington & Burling in Washington.
FT writes that recent DLA filings show proposed purchases including $500 million in cobalt, $245 million in antimony from U.S. Antimony Corp (USAC), $100 million in tantalum, and $45 million in scandium from Rio Tinto and APL Engineered Materials.
Analysts at Jefferies said the Rio Tinto scandium deal was priced “higher than market expectations.” The DLA itself noted that Chinese export controls had “constrained the supply chain.”
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) adds fuel — $7.5 billion earmarked for critical minerals, including $2 billion to fortify the national stockpile and another $5 billion to expand U.S. supply chains. As one former official put it, offices handling mineral security are now “flush with cash.”
Some in the industry were stunned by the scale. “Market participants have been taken aback by the volumes requested by the DLA,” said Cristina Belda of Argus Media. “In most cases, the requested tonnages exceed the US’s annual production and import levels.”
Demand shocks are already visible. Germanium prices have spiked on reduced Chinese exports, antimony trioxide prices have nearly doubled, and the Pentagon is even evaluating acquisitions of rare earths, tungsten, bismuth, and indium. Fastmarkets’ Solomon Cefai warned that “non-China supply would not be pressured by the volumes the DLA is looking at.”
Bottom line: Washington is now openly doing what Zerohedge readers positioned for months ago — securing physical exposure to the minerals that will define the next geopolitical cycle.