We previously previewed tomorrow's German election in an extensive article (see "Everything You Need To Know About The Upcoming German Election") but with so much at stake, with Elon now going all in...

... and with the situation more fluid by the day...

... it's time for a quick reassessment of where we stand (we summarize various reports from DB, Goldman and Bloomberg).

Polls, coalition options and potential impact on policies

Coalition options

What’s are the risks?

Potential impact on policies

How much of the election is already factored into our forecasts?

Timeline for the Bundestag election 2025: What will happen from voting until government formation

Germany heading towards new leadership? Conservatives are leading the polls, while the right wing AfD and Left gained further support

Accuracy of polls seems reasonably good: Far right AfD seems not to be systematically underestimated in polls

What is driving voters’ decisions? State of the economy is more important for voters’ decisions than immigration

Germany‘s mixed electoral system demystified: Peculiarities of the voting system might have an impact on the election outcome

Postal voting has started two weeks ago: Increasingly popular option among German voters

Zooming in on coalition negotiations: Coalition agreement in spring might provide psychological boost to confidence

Preview of potential coalition options: Conservatives likely to lead the next government according to current polls

CDU/CSU - SPD or CDU/CSU - Green coalition - agree to disagree? Where do ex ante policy stances differ?

Potential impact of CDU/CSU policies on the economy: More supply-side policies, but still fiscal hawkishness

Economic policy implications: Fiscal policy pivoting towards higher defence spending

The fiscal defence policy nexus: Smaller parties not necessarily standing in the way of constitutional reform

Constitutional majorities and fiscal regime change: The more fragmentation, the less likely a fiscal regime shift

Zeitenwende 2.0 moment in defence spending: Pivot towards higher defence spending early in the next parliamentary term

Fiscal regime change - a cheat sheet for potential options: Policy options, needed majorities and potential timelines

Germany’s stance on joint EU borrowing: How to fund the VdL 2.0 policy priorities

How much of the election outcome is already factored into DB's forecasts? A meaningful relaxation of the debt brake is not part of the 2025 baseline forecasts

What’s in the tails? Surprises, downside and extreme tail risks

Scenarios for a blocking minority of the far right AfD: Would require significant shift of approval rates and no small party entering the Bundestag

More in the full presentation available to pro subscribers.