Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) seems perfectly American, while Too Clever by Half is quintessential British!

I think Powell needs to deliver one simple message:

I don’t really care how he does it, but that is the message that I’m looking for. He needs to reassure (or assure) everyone that the triumvirate of the Fed, FDIC and the Treasury have the tools, the power and the willingness to do this. Maybe he talks about various lending programs, or hints that implicit deposit guarantees are pretty much explicit once the FDIC gets control (as opposed to needing Congressional approval).  Maybe he comes up with things I haven’t thought of. But for me, the most important aspect of today’s press conference will be how good of a job convincing the American public (not just the wonks on Wall Street) that they can (and even should) keep their deposits where they are.

The fact that there is minimal cost to moving deposits from one bank to the next is what nags at me, and why I think it is so important for Powell to focus on this.

My base case is that Powell will do the following:

If he gets caught up talking about mandates and addressing the Fed wonks on Wall Street, I think this ends badly for risk. If he looks America, mainstream media and even Twitter straight in the eye and delivers a clear and strong message on banks, then off to the races on risk!

Without a doubt 0DTE options will play a role in creating noise during the press conference, but also amplifying whatever direction the market decides to take when it is all said and done.

Basically, choose KISS over being Too Clever by Half!