By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Let's define a "good" deal from a global perspective:

There is almost zero chance Putin agrees to anything like the above - if he does, will be good for risk assets across the globe

If Putin offers a bad deal - from almost none of the above to the weakest conditions on all of the above

No deal, no timeline, markets fade a bit and cross their fingers that:

1. Fed is super dovish (doubt it)

2. Greer, maybe with Bessant takes over tariff planning and negotiations - would be good for risk assets - some signs that is occurring, but it's only been a day or two

For a different take, and one which explains why Putin has (so far) refused to play the ceasefire game, read this.