By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group (“GIG”) weighed in on the American Strike. The overall assessment was that this was a good move:

We recommended buying the dip in stocks and bonds, in a large part due to the GIG’s assessment.

Academy had the privilege, yesterday, to be on Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio and the Wolf of All Streets (a more crypto centric podcast). We discussed and re-iterated our view that the strike was likely a good decision and would lead to good things! Academy’s section starts at the 56 minute mark in this Bloomberg TV Clip. Much of what we discussed has come to pass – and we sent out an optimistic SITREP shortly after Iran Attacks U.S. Bases.

At this stage Peace Through Strength seems to be working out according to plan. Things can obviously change, but not only has a lot of progress been made in the region, but all of our adversaries have to consider us in a different light after that bold (and successful) strike.

There has been some discussion about how much damage was inflicted. What Iran may or may not have moved away. It is still early to tell, as it will take time to collect the full intelligence, but we argued, and continue to argue:

This combination of so many factors, which the GIG has the experience, understanding and insights to lay out, has been working well.

There is talk about Regime Change, and we discuss that in the clip above. Whether that can occur or not, remains to be seen, but our current thoughts are:

There is reason to be optimistic that this strike has set the region on a better path.

As discussed in Sunday’s T-Report, there are A LOT of Moving Parts. We will be watching progress on the Big Beautiful Bill now.

More Tariff extensions seem the most likely and obvious path. One thing that we are hearing more about, are various “tariff mitigation” strategies. We have already discussed the potential to change the component values to import the same good into the U.S. at lower tariff rates, by shifting the various input values to countries with lower tariffs (primarily, not China at current levels). We are seeing a surge in USMCA Compliant approvals – a process that was largely ignored, until it had the ability to sidestep tariffs.

On the Fed, we have now had two members, Waller and Bowman try and put July on the table.

The market (nor the Fed) are with our more aggressive view on timing and number of rate cuts, or bond yields in general (we are more bullish than consensus), but things are moving that direction and Peace Through Strength should further help our view.

Things could still go wrong in the Middle East. Iran could dig in its heels on nuclear enrichment, etc., but for now, we can be optimistic. It is not unreasonable for this success to translate into renewed efforts with Russia/Ukraine, which would also be a positive (especially for global bond yields).