With mortgage rates lower (but rising very recently), and mortgage applications spiking (though flat this week), and following record July cancellations, new home sales were expected to decline very modestly in August. The analysts could not have been more wrong as new home sales exploded 20.5% higher MoM (-0.3% exp) and are up 15.4% YoY.

That is the biggest MoM spike since August 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

The total new home sales SAAR surged to 800k (its highest since Dec 2021) and completely decoupled from existing home sales...

Source: Bloomberg

The surge was driven almost entirely sales in the South region...

Source: Bloomberg

The median new home price rose 1.9% y/y to $413,500, but the average selling price soared near record highs at $534,100...

That was the 3rd biggest monthly jump (+11.7%) in average home price since Lehman...

Source: Bloomberg

But, even with the jump in median new home prices, they are still well below the existing home price...

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, houses for sale in Aug. fell 1.4% m/m to 490,000 pushing the months’ supply at 7.4 in Aug. compared to 9.0 prior month.

Did homebuilders finally capitulate?

Is the sales jump sustainable?

Source: Bloomberg

It appears lower mortgage rates and higher incentives helped a great deal but 20% is a crazy number.