Misses across the board today in CPI left US macro surprise data languishing in 'not so soft landing' territory...
Source: Bloomberg
...as inflation and growth factors have are now tumbling in a 'recession-y' kinda way...
Source: Bloomberg
...all of which prompted a surge in rate-cut hopes, with 2024 expectations at their highest since April (61bps) as 2025 is now pricing in four full rate-cuts...
Source: Bloomberg
Which sent gold higher, the dollar lower and Treasury yields plunging (led by the short-end)...
Source: Bloomberg
... BUT the picture was very different in equity market land...
Source: Bloomberg
...where Nasdaq was monkeyhammered while Small Caps surged. The Dow clung to unchanged as the S&P ended off around 1% weighed down by Tech obviously...
That RTY/NDX spread was over 600bps at its peak today. By the close it was the biggest relative outperformance of the Russell 2000 over Nasdaq 100 since 2002...
Source: Bloomberg
...and oddly, breadth was crazy positive despite the ugliness as the reverse MAG7 trade struck hard...
388 members of the S&P currently trading up on the day vs 111 in the red (top 5 breadth day of the year).
TSLA tumbled on robotaxi-delays talk...
NVDA stalled at its previous record close and dropped over 5%...
However, as Goldman's traders noted, as big as today's moves are, they hardly register on long-term charts...
Source: Bloomberg
But, the NDX/RTY pair does remain at a key support level for now...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, before we leave stocks, volumes on Goldman's trading desk were tracking higher +27% vs the 20dma and index trading leading the way w/ ETF’s capturing 31% of the overall tape.
Both LOs and HFs much better for sale.
There was plenty of activity in other asset classes too...
The dollar was clubbed like a baby seal on the dovishness back to pre-June Payrolls lows...
Source: Bloomberg
..helped lower by alleged BOJ intervention to strengthen the yen...
Source: Bloomberg
Gold soared back near record highs with spot prices topping $2400 once again...
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices managed gains too with WTI back up to $83...
Source: Bloomberg
And Powell and Biden better hope that oil prices (and thus gas prices) start coming down soon or today's CPI may be overwhelmed...
Source: Bloomberg
Still if you think you had a turbulent day, give a thought for President Biden who is now behind none other than Kamala Harris in the betting for who will get the Democratic Party nod...
Source: Bloomberg
Time to get back on your knees, Joe!