As usual in the post-payrolls event lull, it's a relatively quiet week - aside for the sudden break out of war in the middle east - as Q3 earnings season begins. Looking at the economic calendar, we have the latest US CPI (Thursday) to look forward to alongside PPI (Wednesday) as the dress rehearsal. China inflation (Friday) is also interesting as last month the country came out of deflation again.
Elsewhere, the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and the ECB account (Thursday) from their September meetings will be of note. German industrial production (today) and UK monthly GDP (Thursday) are other key highlights and on Friday US Q3 earnings season unofficially starts with a few big US banks reporting.
US 10yr and 30yr auctions on Wednesday and Thursday could also be market-moving events for yields depending on how well they are covered.
Some more details on the two main events in the US:
Finally, earnings season will kick off with results from several US banks/financials on Friday, including JPMorgan, Citi, BlackRock, and Wells Fargo. Contrary to expectations for an earnings pullback, DB strategists think we'll see a fresh high for S&P 500 earnings. They also note that 80% of time the market rallies during earnings season, and by an average of 2%. The extent of this typically depends on performance and positioning going into it. Going into this season, we've had a notable pull-back and investors are now underweight (see their positioning report here) which leaves our strategists fairly optimistic. We will see if the macro world supports that view in the next few weeks.
Here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday October 9
Tuesday October 10
Wednesday October 11
Thursday October 12
Friday October 13
Finally, turning to just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the PPI report on Wednesday and the CPI report on Thursday. The minutes from the September FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials scheduled this week, including Fed presidents Logan, Bostic, Kashkari, Daly, Collins, and Harker and Fed governors Barr, Jefferson, Waller, and Bowman.
Monday, October 9
Tuesday, October 10
Wednesday, October 11
Thursday, October 12
Friday, October 13
Source: DB, Goldman, BofA