It's another payrolls week with consensus (+190k) expecting job gains to pick up from last month's +175k number with unemployment widely expected to stay at 3.9%. As DB's Jim Reid writres this morning, the bank's economists think the risks are biased to it rounding down a tenth rather than up. Meanwhile, the JOLTS data tomorrow is many people's preferred employment measure but it's always a month lagged to payrolls which reduces the impact. The employment components of May's ISM indices (today for manufacturing and Wednesday for services) will also help fine tune expectations for payrolls. At the index level, DB economists see the manufacturing gauge moving from 49.2 to 49.4 in May and the services one expanding to 50.4 from 49.4 in April. Here are all the key events in the US this week.
In Europe, all eyes will be on the ECB decision on Thursday, where most economists expect a 25bps cut with markets pricing in a 96% probability. All eyes will be on how they signal the path after this meeting. The Bank of Canada meet beforehand on Wednesday with expectations that they stay on hold for now. In terms of European data, various final PMIs are out this week alongside Germany factory orders (Thursday), industrial production (Friday), and the trade balance (Friday). Elsewhere, there will be the French trade balance data (Friday) and industrial production (Wednesday), Swiss CPI (tomorrow), as well as retail sales for the Eurozone and Italy (Thursday).
Elsewhere we have the presidential elections result in Mexico after yesterday’s election with Sheinbaum set for a landslide victory according to exit polls just released. Staying with elections we have the important European Parliamentary elections between June 6-9 and the results of India's general elections will be counted tomorrow. Exit polls show a resounding win with a predicted seat range of 350-400 for Narendra Modi’s BJP-led NDA coalition which would likely be seen as supportive for the current policy regime after Indian assets had underperformed over the last month. They need 272 for a majority and more than 352 to better the 2019 outcome.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday June 3
Tuesday June 4
Wednesday June 5
Thursday June 6
Friday June 7
Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, and the employment report on Friday. There are no speaking engagements from Fed officials this week other than a commencement speech from Governor Cook on Friday, reflecting the FOMC’s blackout period.
Monday, June 3
Tuesday, June 4
Wednesday, June 5
Thursday, June 6
Friday, June 7
Source: DB, Goldman